This week’s Monday Briefing starts from the Brazilian election, that delivered no clear winner and for which a second round, with Lula and Bolsonaro facing off, will be needed. In other news, a tragedy on a soccer pitch in Indonesia, Great Britain’s economic crisis, elections in Bulgaria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the latest on Russia and Ukraine, and much much more.
On Sunday, October 2nd, almost 150 million Brazilian electors were called to vote at the first round of the general presidential election. Since no candidate received more than 50% of votes, a second round of the election will be held on October 30th, with the two candidates receiving the most votes facing off. On one side, the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, who received 43.23 percent of the votes. On the other, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, more commonly known as Lula, a former left-wing president, who received 48.39 percent of the votes. According to some polls that were run in the days preceding the general election, Lula had a very concrete shot at obtaining a 50 percent majority already in the first round, but in the end, most probably because of a high rate of undecided who ended up abstaining, he did not manage to get the majority. Lula is still considered the favorite to become president, but given that polls prior to the election had him leading by 10 percent and he ended up only with 5 percent more votes than Bolsonaro, now a comeback by the incumbent seems possible.
Both candidates ran a quite aggressive electoral campaign against their opponent. Lula, who during his presidency distinguished himself for socio-economic measures like “Bolsa Familia” e “Fome Zero” that were designed to decrease poverty and famine, tried to seduce the centre-right electorate by demonstrating closeness to the Catholic Church. For instance, for the Vice-Presidency candidacy he chose Geraldo Alckmin, a former governor of Sao Paulo, a fervent Catholic that is considered close to Opus Dei. On the other side, Bolsonaro repeatedly accused his opponent for being a thief, a Communist, and generally a danger for Brazil. He also deeply criticized Brazil’s electoral systems, and there exists a fear that, if he ends up losing, he may not accept the result and concede the Presidency to his opponent.
Whatever the outcome, it is an election that demonstrates a high degree of polarization in South America’s most populous country, which may have multiple implications both for the area and more generally for politics.
Around the World
UK government declines to comment as pound plunges to record low against dollar. The pound dropped another two cents against the dollar within minutes of the Bank of England’s announcement that it will not increase interest rates before its next scheduled policy meeting on November 3. The initial crash, which sent the pound to its lowest level against the dollar in 37 years, came after the announcement of the new UK chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s £45bn tax-cutting package. Kwarteng’s mini pro-cyclical budget was seen as a reckless move that would “put government debt on an unsustainable rising path”.
Over a Decade After 150 Were Killed, Guinea Puts an Ex-President on Trial. The trial of Guinea’s former president and 10 others accused of responsibility for a 2009 stadium massacre and mass rape began Wednesday in the country’s capital, in what survivors and relatives of victims hope will bring long-delayed justice. Thirteen years ago, on Sept. 28, 2009, security forces stormed a stadium where tens of thousands of pro-democracy protesters were demonstrating against the president at the time, Capt. Moussa Dadis Camara, who had seized power in a coup. More than 150 people were killed, hundreds of others were wounded and at least 109 women were raped or sexually assaulted, according to a U.N. investigation and witness accounts gathered by Human Rights Watch.
Denmark, Germany and Poland warn of ‘sabotage’ after Nord Stream leaks. Suspicious leaks in two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea are probably the result of sabotage, officials in Denmark, Germany and Poland have warned, heightening concerns over the vulnerability of Europe’s energy infrastructure.
19 killed and dozens wounded at Kabul education centre, say police. A suicide blast at an education institute in the Afghan capital of Kabul has killed 19 people and wounded 27, police said on Friday. The explosion happened inside the centre in the Dashti Barchi neighborhood of Kabul, said Khalid Zadran, the Taliban-appointed spokesman for the Kabul police chief. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack.
Eurozone inflation hits record 10% as energy prices continue to soar. Inflation hit a double-digit figure in September for the first time in the euro’s 23-year history, surpassing the record inflation rate hit in the previous month. In more than half of the 19 Eurozone countries, a double-digit inflation rate was observed, and in the Baltic states, the rate was over 20% percent. The increase in inflation is partially caused by soaring energy prices resulting from reduced gas supplies from Russia. The ECB has stated that inflation in the Eurozone is “far too high” and declared its intention to continue its rate hikes until there is considerable disinflation.
Vladimir Putin proclaims annexation of 4 regions in Eastern Ukraine. During the signing ceremony of the “accession papers” on Friday, the Russian president vouched to protect the claimed territory “by all means”, reiterated a nuclear threat towards the West, and urged Ukraine to start negotiations with the Kremlin. President Zelensky responded by signing what he says are formal application papers to join NATO.
Hurricane Ian ravages the US East Coast, leaving dozens dead and hundreds more in need of rescue. The death toll reached 50 on Saturday, as the storm moved from Florida to North and South Carolina. In southwestern Florida alone, more than a thousand people have had to evacuate their homes. On Saturday evening, the White House announced the Biden family would travel to the Sunshine State next week to assess the situation.
Violence erupts at a football match in Indonesia, leaving at least 174 people killed. The tragedy occurred after the Javanese club Arema suffered its first defeat from rival club Persebaya Surabaya in 23 years. Angry protesters were met with force from the police after they descended onto the pitch, throwing bottles at players and coaches. The FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, deemed the event “a dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension.”
Bulgarians head to the polls for the fourth time in under 2 years. The Eastern European country has recently battled with high levels of political instability, after the 4-party coalition led by Kiril Petkov received a no-confidence vote from parliament back in spring. On top of that, Bulgaria is facing rising inflation, sweeping energy prices, and the threat Russian political influence. Turnout is expected to be low, and opinion polls show that forming a government could prove even more difficult than before the vote.
Bosnia Elects New Leaders as OHR Imposes New Election Rules. In elections in Bosnia on Sunday, Bosnian Serb strongman Milorad Dodik’s close ally, Zeljka Cvijanovic, looked set to take the Serbian seat on the state presidency, alongside current Croat incumbent Zeljko Komsic and Denis Becirovic for the Bosniaks. Meanwhile, the High Representative to Bosnia Christian Schmidt, in a surprise move, imposed controversial changes to the country’s election law, raising the number of representatives in the Federation entity’s House of Peoples and changing the way in which they are chosen. The move adds a layer of controversy to what is already one of the most complicated electoral systems in the world.
Elezioni, nuovo Parlamento. il nuovo Parlamento sarà largamente in mano al centrodestra, con 352 eletti tra Camera e Senato appartenenti alla coalizione guidata da Giorgia Meloni, Fratelli d’Italia. Il centrosinistra avrà invece complessivamente 128 seggi. Rimangono invece indietro con meno seggi per camera il Movimento 5 Stelle e il Terzo Polo.
Governo, incontro Meloni-Salvini. ‘Grande collaborazione’: Giorgia Meloni sta lavorando per formare la nuova squadra di governo e ha incontrato il leader della Lega, Matteo Salvini, per un colloquio durato circa un’ora dal quale è emersa una voglia di “grande collaborazione e unità di intenti”. Nella nota diffusa al termine dell’incontro si legge che entrambi i leader “hanno espresso soddisfazione per la fiducia data dagli italiani alla coalizione e hanno ribadito il grande senso di responsabilità che questo risultato comporta. Meloni e Salvini hanno fatto il punto della situazione e delle priorità e urgenze all’ordine del giorno del governo e del Parlamento, anche alla luce della complessa situazione che l’Italia sta vivendo”.
Russia: “Le relazioni con l’Italia dipenderanno dalle azioni del governo”. E l’ambasciata di Roma invita i concittadini a lasciare il Paese: A poche ore dalla cerimonia per l’annessione alla Russia dei popoli ucraini che hanno votato al referendum e a pochi giorni di distanza dalle elezioni italiane, la portavoce del ministero degli Esteri, Maria Zakharova commenta l’esito delle nostre votazioni dicendo che “tutto dipenderà dalle azioni concrete e dai provvedimenti presi in pratica dalle autorità italiane” e che nonostante tutto è ancora troppo presto per dare una valutazione più concreta. Intanto, anche l’ambasciata italiana a Mosca, così come quelle di molte altre nazioni, invitano i loro connazionali a lasciare il Paese.
Prezzo del gas, Cingolani: l’Ue lavora a un “tetto con forchetta”. Viene definita “tetto a forchetta” la soluzione alla quale si sta lavorando a livello europeo, come spiegato dal ministro alla Transizione, Roberto Cingolani, al termine del Consiglio dei ministri europei dell’energia. E continua dicendo che “Bisogna realizzare e trovare un range tra un minimo e un massimo in cui ci possa sempre essere una variazione” e che ben presto i principale Paesi consumatori di energia presenteranno una p alla Commissione Europea che consenta di disegnare una soluzione legislativa accurata. Cingolani, inoltre, spiega che la quasi totalità degli Stati non ritiene tale tetto sul gas russo un punto fondamentale e che vi è consenso sul configurarla come una sanzione più che come una misura sull’energia.
- This week it was announced that Professor Andrea Sironi will be the new President of Bocconi starting from November 1st. Mario Monti will remain in Bocconi as president of the Villa Hermosa institute (whose board chooses the Bocconi President itself)
- On Tuesday, Il Pagante was back in Bocconi to talk about the music industry development. Roberta Branchini, Luca Daher and Guglielml Panzera explained to Bocconi students the evolution of the Milanese group as well as the developments of digital music in our country
- On Friday professors De Vries and Altomonte, held a conference on the Results of Italian Elections
- On Wednesday and Thursday, the TechChill event for Startups was held in Roentgen: the aim was to give more visibility to the more promising startups, and to reinforce the local network. Several Italian scaleups took part, but also innovation accelerators such as B4i – Bocconi For Innovation, Italian Tech Alliance, InnovUp, Techstars, Italian Angels for Growth, Angel4Women, Plug and Play, EU for Innovation and firms such as Genenta, D-Orbit, Swappie.
- Elections for class representatives closed on Friday, results are going to be announced between Monday and Tuesday. Soon we are also going to know the names of course representative!
- 3th October: don’t miss – Presentation of John List’s New Book: “The Voltage Effect” as part of the IGIER policy seminar event
- On the 4th, the 8 Bocconi Residences will elect their new representatives: residents can vote from 8.30 to 18.00!
In Case You Missed it:
Pierfrancesco Urbano ha scritto sulle proposte dei partiti in campagna elettorale per quanto riguarda istruzione universitaria e ricerca.
Jemmy Suwannaluck offre un panorama degli eventi artistici-culturali autunnali a Milano e in altre città italiane.
Si può scoprire i risultati del sondaggio condiviso da Tra i Leoni per capire quali siano le preferenze elettorali tra Bocconiani nell’articolo Come votano i Bocconiani?.