The Monday Briefing is back after a long midterm hiatus, with a great focus on elections around the world. In Israel, a deadlocked parliament leaves the country at a crossroads; in Serbia, students show their force; in Brazil, the far-right is defeated; and in the US, we look ahead to decisive midterms. In other news, we discuss the effects of student protests across Europe (including here in Milan), a UN withdrawal from Western Sahara, and groundbreaking EU legislation.
Spotlight: Israeli Election Ends in Stalemate
By Diego de Carvalho and Daniel Dishdishyan
On Tuesday, October 27th, Israel held general elections to renew its parliament, the Knesset. The election resulted in a, for now, deadlocked parliament, as both the governing and opposition coalitions were unable to reach an outright majority. The result was thus a partial defeat for the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not guaranteed to stay in office, but has forced the opposition to either coalition with him or with Arab parties.
Netanyahu has governed Israel since December 2022 after snap elections allowed him to return to power; he had been Prime Minister from 2009 to 2021 before that. In early 2023, he attempted to reform the Israeli judicial system, sparking major protests and accusations of democratic backsliding. Then, on October 7th, 2023, Israel suffered major terrorist attacks by the Palestinian militant group Hamas; this event started the Gaza War, which has been ongoing since then. The Israeli opposition says that Netanyahu ignored intelligence reports that the attack would happen.
In Tuesday’s election, Netanyahu’s coalition gained 53 seats out of 120, a plurality, but not enough for them to govern on their own. In the meantime, the opposition, led by Gadi Eizenkot and his party Yashar, won 48 seats. The remaining 19 were won by two parties representing Israel’s Arab minority, which is 21% of the country’s population.
These results put the Israeli opposition at a crossroads. The group promised they would not sit in a government with Netanyahu, who they aggressively attacked during the campaign. As such, in order to govern, they would need to ally themselves with the Arab parties, which is opposed by some coalition partners. If no government is formed, Israel will likely have new elections, a blow to the opposition, who had favourable momentum and political conditions this time around.
The election marks a continuing shift to the right in Israeli politics, which has not rejected Netanyahu even after a very turbulent and controversial government. One reason for this is the increase in the Orthodox population in Israel, which is far more conservative and religious.
Meanwhile, the election also saw a rise in Arab turnout, which has mobilised in solidarity with Palestinians and in reaction to increasingly anti-Arab legislation in the Knesset. Yet, if Israel’s Jewish political establishment is unwilling to ally itself with Arab parties, they will remain a spoiler in attempts to push Netanyahu out of power.
Nonetheless, as these political forces organise themselves in the coming weeks, the country holds its breath for the future of Netanyahu’s government and the Gaza War. If Netanyahu survives, he will have a renewed mandate to pursue his aggressive foreign policy in the Middle East. This will probably mean an escalation of settler violence in the West Bank, an intensification of Israel’s genocide against Palestinians, and a consolidation of the persecution of Arab Israelis.
Yet, it’s important to note that, if the Israeli opposition does form a government, this will not result in an immediate thaw in Israel’s diplomatic relations. While less hard-line than Netanyahu and his partners, the opposition’s foreign policy positions fall strictly within the mainstream of Israeli political discourse: no recognition of a Palestinian state, continuing wars in Lebanon and Iran, and destroying Hamas. Arab parties will surely demand concessions in order to support an opposition government, but dramatic change is unlikely.
Israel’s political future thus remains uncertain, with parliament divided into three largely uncooperative blocs. Yet whatever government emerges from the ongoing negotiations, its prospects for easing the regional crisis will also depend on whether Israeli society is willing to reconsider the country’s role in the Middle East.
European News
Serbia’s Student List Wins Elections
By Andreas Manolopoulos
On November 1, 2024, a concrete canopy at the recently renovated railway station in Novi Sad collapsed, killing 16 people. Public suspicion quickly pointed to corruption and negligence by government officials. University students began blockades and demonstrations demanding accountability from the government and the release of documents for independent investigations.
Almost two years later, the protests had not faded. Instead, the movement entered Serbia’s snap parliamentary election on October 25. Serbia uses proportional representation; meaning the entire country is one electoral district, voters choose between lists of candidates, and each list receives seats according to its share of the vote.
The students are not planning to run for parliament themselves, rather nominating people they can put their trust in. They have elected a 250-person “Student List” of citizens, including doctors, professors, artists, economists and even former athletes. Candidates included former central-bank governor Dejan Šoškić and retired basketball player Dejan Bodiroga.
Preliminary official results gave the Student List 52.71% of the vote and 140 of parliament’s 250 seats. Second in line is led by Aleksandar Vučić, whose Serbian Progressive Party had dominated national politics for 14 years, receiving 39.17% and 104 seats. Because only 126 seats are required for a majority, the student-backed list can form a government without a coalition.
The students transformed an anti-corruption protest into a breath of fresh air in European politics. Their next challenge will be looking to turn a diverse citizens’ list into a functioning government while delivering the accountability and institutional reform that first brought protesters into the streets.
From Paris to Milan: The Aftermath of Europe’s Student Protests
By Derinsu Polat
Student protests have roiled Europe over the past two months. Beginning in France, they have spread across the continent within a matter of weeks. Many are still ongoing, although their initial fervour has subsided. With more calm, we are now in a better position to observe their effects in the economic, sociological, and security spheres. Below, we will discuss the developments in specific countries.
France (mainly Paris): The Interior Ministry imposed partial protest bans and mobilised more than 70,000 police officers and soldiers. Paris has also used curfews to restore calm after weekend rioting.
Albania (Tirana): Police used tear gas and water cannons after demonstrators threw bricks and concrete at the Education Ministry. Protests have continued despite new measures to curb the unrest. Arrests have been so high that Tirana police issued an urgent directive on protecting minors during police procedures.
Belgium (mainly Liège): The mayor of Liège banned street gatherings of more than three people until 16 October, with exceptions. The ban was a reaction to escalating violence and repeated clashes with police.
Italy (Milan): In Milan, police detained several minors as a preventive measure. In the last weeks rioters have smashed their way into stores, targeting sneakers, athletic wear and sporting goods on streets around Piazza del Duomo. Many stores, particularly luxury boutiques within Milan’s fashion district, boarded up their front windows. Some of the damage is still visible as you head towards Duomo.
Premier Giorgia Meloni announced a raft of measures, including sending an additional 500 soldiers to Milan and tougher penalties for minors, who police said made up a large part of the violent protesters last week. Meloni, however, drew criticism for failing to address the underlying causes of the protests, such as the rising cost of living or increasing rents.
For Tra i Leoni’s further coverage of protests around Europe, see our analysis of the French protests and two sides of a debate on the legitimacy of violence in civil protests.
World News
Brazilian Elections: Lula Wins, Flávio Flees
By Diego de Carvalho
On October 25th, Brazilians voted in the second round of their presidential elections, which pitted the leftist incumbent Lula against a far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. Flávio, who had beat Lula in the first round, was considered the favourite to win the election, but was defeated in a historic comeback victory by Lula.
This marks the 81-year-old Lula’s fourth presidential victory, capping off a political legacy that spans over four decades. His unexpected win was a result of intense mobilisation by the Brazilian left to increase turnout and boost support in major cities. Over the past weeks, the country saw millions in street protests to support Lula’s re-election campaign.
In the meantime, the defeated Flávio Bolsonaro has fled the country, seeking refuge in Florida. His departure, which was abetted by the American and Argentinian governments, leaves the Brazilian far-right without a clear leader; Flávio and his brother Eduardo are in the US and their father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro, is in prison for a coup attempt.
Despite a currently acephalous opposition, Lula will face many challenges in government: the far-right occupies over one third of the Senate and is the largest party in the Chamber of Deputies. Further, Lula will have few local partners: 18 of Brazil’s 26 governors are right-wing and 23 of the country’s 30 largest cities are administered by right-wing mayors. Hence, Lula will have to rely on the political support of Brazil’s physiological centre-right, which has previously proven to be an unstable political partner.
Nonetheless, Lula’s victory represents an emphatic rebuttal of the rise in the far-right across Latin America and the world. The result will surely disappoint Donald Trump and Javier Milei, who had hoped Brazil would be the last step in aligning all of South America towards American interests. Whether this momentum will spread across the region remains to be seen, but the idea will be tested next year, when Argentina votes in its presidential election.
US Midterm Elections: Which Issues Will Shape the Vote?
By Anouk Lainé
On November 3rd, Americans will go to the polls to vote for the midterm elections, marking the end of the first half of Donald Trump’s second term. All 435 House seats and one third of the Senate will be renewed, making these elections a crucial moment in the administration’s mandate. If Republicans lose their majority in one of the two chambers, it will be harder for them to pass legislation and secure their budget. This could even pose a threat to the president as Congress has the power of impeachment.
Midterms are also seen as a referendum on the incumbent president. Trump was elected in 2024 after a campaign focused on immigration, the cost of living, and backlash against “wokeism” in universities. However, many Republican voters have been disappointed with rising prices, fueled by the war in Iran, a war of choice the US entered despite Trump’s campaign promise to limit military interventions abroad. The Trump administration has also been criticized for its shift towards authoritarianism and its harsh immigration crackdown.
On the other side, Democrats came out weakened from the defeat of Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, during which they were seen by many voters as lacking fresh ideas and clear positions. However, the Democratic Party has witnessed major changes since then, with the emergence of socialist figures like NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani and the rise in popularity of the Democratic Socialists of America. These left-wing Democratic leaders have made cost of living issues central to their campaigns, drawing support from young and blue-collar voters.
Which issues will matter the most to voters, and can the Democratic Party turn dissatisfaction with the incumbent president into real support for its program?
UN Mission in Western Sahara ends after 35 years
By Riccardo De Ambroggi
The MINURSO (United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara) Peacekeeping mission ceased operations in Western Sahara after a standoff between the US and Russia in the Security Council on Friday, October 30th. The decision on the withdrawal was well received by Morocco, which claiming sovereignty over the region since 1975.
The mission has been extended repeatedly after its establishment in 1991. Initially, it had the goal of ending the hostilities between the Moroccan Government and the Algeria-backed Polisario Front, fighting for the independence of the “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic”. The decision comes after tense bargaining in the Security Council: Russia vetoed a resolution, drafted by the US, which aimed to support Moroccan claims of sovereignty and end the peacekeeping mission. Consequently, a Russian counter-resolution to extend the mandate was voted down, leading to an abrupt end of the operations.
The UN classifies Western Sahara as a “non-self-governing territory” and control of Morocco over the region has been opposed by the Front, which calls for an independence referendum, something also favoured by the UN. The question is a central issue Moroccan diplomacy and has become the defining feature of the kingdom’s international relations. The Moroccan government has therefore welcomed the failed extension of MINURSO, declaring that they are still committed to the 1991 ceasefire that was enforced by the mission. Predictably, the opposite is true for Algeria, whose representative called the resolution an injustice mining the “very foundation of our organisation”.
Now the region’s political horizon seems to definitively bring Western Sahara under Moroccan rule. This may also further escalate tense relations between Morocco and Algeria, perhaps requiring further intervention by the superpowers allied with each of them.
Economic News
EU Member States Agree on Harmonisation of Business Regulation
By Ruben Gianzini
The members of the Council of the EU, the organ composed by representatives of all the Member States, have concluded their negotiations over EU Inc., a “28th regime” that would allow businesses to operate under the same regulations in the whole single market. The Council will soon bring the proposal to the Parliament for the final stage of negotiations, before eventually making it law.
The 28th regime is aimed at boosting market integration by making the establishment of startups easier and more appealing: for example, international businesses would not have to establish subsidiaries in each Member State anymore. This would help European startups, which are far less lucrative than their American counterparts.
The proposal originates from the famous reports by former Italian prime ministers Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, which thoroughly assessed all the obstacles to the EU’s competitiveness. The reports highlighted the need of a unified legal framework for companies, in order to overcome (one of the) deficiencies in the single market.
The EU Inc. law was first proposed in March, and in order to see it through, the Council has now scrapped an aspect that seemed crucial: the harmonisation of insolvency laws. According to an IMF report, such harmonisation would have accounted for more than half of the potential growth resulting from this agreement. The decision to abandon harmonisation thus raised scepticism about the law’s efficacy, as well as protests from trade unions which argue that the framework would worsen labour conditions.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Diego de Carvalho. Current writing staff: Alice di Terlizzi, Andreas Manolopoulos, Anouk Lainé, Daniel Dishdishyan, Derinsu Polat, Riccardo de Ambroggi, Ruben Gianzini. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
My name is Diego, and I am currently in my 3rd year of BESS. I was born and raised in Brasília, Brazil and although I have lived also in Switzerland, the United States, and now Italy, I consider myself Brazilian and Latin-American by heart. My heart and time are often split by many different interests, including football, history, geopolitics, philosophy, music, and cinema.
Hi guys, my name is Andreas. I was born in Athens, Greece but had the pleasure of growing up all over the world. I am a 3rd year BESS student and enjoy learning about current events and economic policy. I'm a big fan of sports, specifically snowboarding and football, music, and watching movies.
I'm Derinsu, an exchange student from the University of Birmingham studying Marketing and Management at Bocconi. I'm passionate about e-marketing, art, fashion and cultural issues. My goal is to explore Milan and Italy, make this journey memorable and write about the issues that matter to me. Through Tra i Leoni, my aim is to turn my perspective into stories worth reading.
First year BGL student and journalist at heart, whose goal is to keep people informed; mainly covering politics and history, while giving my opinion so that you can think more critically.