In this special edition of the Monday Briefing, we are going to line up a series of issues and situations that will develop in the next months, while our team is busy with exams and summer vacations. Tune in to have a brief look at what’s coming your way!
What is coming up?
The Midterm Elections that could change everything
By Pietro Ferrari
American Politics have always had a remarkable capacity to capture the world attention. Every four years the Presidential elections are analyzed and studied far and wide, as they determine who will lead what once was the Leader of the Free World and what still is the most powerful nation on the planet. Midterm Elections are not that famous, especially outside of the country, yet their importance is almost on par with the rest. After 2 years of Trump second term, much is on the line in November Midterms.
One particularly overlooked story that is often overlooked is the possible rise of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. This represents a growing group of Democratic Leaning states that have passed internal legislation that, during the Presidential Elections, would grant the electoral votes from that state to the winner of the Popular Vote nationwide and not in their own population. Such change of legislation will only come in effect in each of these states if and only if a number of states totaling 270 electoral votes will implement similar provisions. As of right now, 222 EV have been pledged to this procedure and 39 more are drafting the law, making the Compact EV count a staggering 261, only 9 short of the target. Assuming, and that is strong assumptions, that all Democratic controlled states will be in favor of this proposal, these midterms could be decisive.
Experts are all expecting a Blue Wave in this November’s Elections, and more likely than not such Democratic victory will materialize. If States such as Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nevada were to fall in a Democratic Trifecta (control of Governorship and both houses of Congress), they too could join the Popular Vote movement, titling decisively the EV count over 270 and changing American Elections forever. Even then, one last problem would remain: there is a massive debate around the Popular vote proposal Constitutionality, and thus Federal courts could have something to say about this Compact. And yet one can wonder how American politics would change without the Electoral College.
AI Regulation: Why Cyberattacks Make it Urgent
By Veronika Lizier-Zmudzinski
Over the next few months, artificial intelligence regulation is likely to become one of the most important political and social issues, especially as cyberattacks become more advanced. AI has changed the way business is conducted, teachers teach, and media and politics evolve, but it is also beginning to change the way online threats are created. Recent warnings from the IMF have highlighted that AI could make cyberattacks faster, more convincing, and more damaging, especially if attackers use it to find weaknesses in financial systems, infrastructure, or public services.
This then connects to the debate over future regulation. AI tools can help businesses and governments improve efficiency, detect fraud, and strengthen cybersecurity. However, this same technology can also be used in more sinister ways.
The challenge for governments is to act quickly without blocking future innovation that AI can produce and facilitate. In the upcoming months, decisions are going to have to be made regarding what regulation is correct. If regulation is too weak, AI could be misused. If it is too strict, businesses and researchers may struggle to develop useful new tools. This creates finding an equilibrium balance between security, freedom, and technological progress extremely difficult.
The recent cyber threats show that AI regulation can no longer be put aside but must be addressed. As AI becomes more powerful, the coming months will test whether governments can create rules fast enough to keep society safe.
Upcoming Elections in South America Renew Polarization
By Diego de Carvalho
Peru, Colombia, Brazil. Over the next couple of months, three of South America’s four most populous countries will go to the polls to decide their new presidents. The highly contested races leading up to these elections seem to repeat the profound political polarization that has consumed Latin America’s political debate for almost a decade.
The first of these major elections is the Colombian presidential election, which will occur on May 31st. The current leader in the polls is senator Iván Cepeda, a left-wing candidate who is supported by the country’s outgoing president Gustavo Petro. From the right, he will be challenged by far-right activist Abelardo de la Espriella, and by conservative senator Paloma Valencia. Even as Cepeda seems poised to win the first round of the election, it seems unlikely he will receive a majority of the votes, which should pit him in a runoff against one of his right-wing opponents, in which polls are far more ambiguous about his chance at victory.
Meanwhile, Peru will see the runoffs to its presidential election on June 7th. The first round, which occurred last month, saw a deeply fragmented field, and the two remaining candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, won less than 30% of the vote combined. Sánchez, specifically, won only 12% of the vote and beat out the third-placed Rafael López Alliaga by only 15 thousand total votes. Keiko, the daughter of right-wing dictator Alberto Fujimori, will reprise the debate surrounding her father’s legacy which has split the Peruvian electorate for its last 4 suffrages.
In Brazil, the election is quite far-off (October), but the country’s politics are already paralyzed in expectation for it. The country’s left-wing president Lula da Silva will face off against Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the disgraced ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, replicating the right-left polarization that marked the country’s presidential elections in 2018 and 2022. The election should be octogenarian Lula’s last presidential race — he has been the main character in all of Brazil’s presidential races since 1989 – and his political footprint is almost unrivaled in Brazilian history.
While each of these races presents their own set of particularities, they symbolize a persistent political split among the Latin American electorate, which is repeated from country to country despite their differences. Of course, elections are only a fraction of political activity in the region, but this indecisiveness seems characteristic of a continent who has been stagnating for the past 15 years. The growth of the Latin American far-right, which could be bolstered with three new additions by the end of the year, is a consequence of deep dissatisfaction with mainstream politics. Yet, when the far-right does take power, it has shown to be just as inept in implementing substantial change and, when the rhetoric firepower runs out, the electorate seems to be equally willing to oust it.
A notable characteristic of this extremism is a wipe-out in the center-right across South America. The same phenomenon, which has already occurred previously in Argentina 2023, Brazil 2018 and 2022, and Chile 2021 and 2025, seems likely to repeat itself again this year in Colombia and Brazil. This atrophy is dangerous because it has enabled the growth of far right and turned the region’s often archaic left-wing (see Argentina, Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia) the only viable alternative to extremism.
Britain’s Fragmented Vote Signals a New Political Era
By Teodora Stefan
Following the local elections held on May 9th, the UK political scene seems more divided than ever. Seemingly, the British are moving away from the long-established two-party system, making space for different views in the political landscape
The Labor Party suffered a historic blow, losing seats in all parts of the kingdom. Unsurprisingly, Reform UK came out as the winner in this election. They surged through former Labour and Conservative heartlands, while the Greens expanded rapidly in urban and younger constituencies. In Wales, Plaid Cymru ended more than a century of Labour dominance. In Scotland, Labour’s hopes of revival stalled again behind the SNP, which successfully fed into people’s dissatisfaction with unionist politics. Furthermore, the Conservatives face an equally bleak dilemma. Farage’s party is eating directly into the post-Brexit coalition once assembled by Boris Johnson.
For Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the elections became an early referendum on his government. Labour lost hundreds of councillors and surrendered councils once considered politically immovable. However, the problem runs deeper than just Starmer’s career. There is an obvious rise in polarisation and fragmentation across the British electorate. Younger generations stand at a complete opposite from older people, and it appears that consensus is farther away than ever.
These election results come at a moment of significant geopolitical strain, from the war in Ukraine to shifting transatlantic relations and economic uncertainty. A more fragmented and polarized UK risks weakening its ability to project stability and leadership abroad. Domestic divisions may constrain foreign policy decisions, defence commitments and long-term strategic planning, just as allies seek reliability. In this context, political instability at home could translate into reduced influence on the global stage.
The results point to a political system in transition rather than decline. A more diverse and competitive landscape may challenge the dominance of the traditional parties, but it also opens space for new ideas and broader representation. How effectively leaders respond to these shifts will determine whether this moment of disruption becomes a source of renewal for British democracy.
The End of the Unsold: A Turning Point in the Fashion Industry
By Cecilia Franceschini
Starting from July 2026, a measure to stop the destruction of unsold clothing, accessories, and footwear will enter into force in the European Union under the Commission’s Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR). With around 4-9% of unsold textiles being destroyed each year in Europe – contributing significantly to CO₂ emissions – the Commission aims to reduce waste and promote recycling and reuse within the textile industry. While the ban will initially apply only to large companies – extending to medium-sized firms only from 2030 – its impact could still be far-reaching, forcing major players to rethink how they produce, sell, and manage inventory.
If companies can no longer simply discard unsold goods, they will likely reduce overproduction, a key driver of waste in the fast fashion model. They will need to better predict demand or invest in alternatives such as recycling, resale, or donation, accelerating the transition toward a more circular economy. Increased transparency requirements – such as reporting discarded items – may also influence consumer behaviour, putting pressure on brands to adopt more sustainable practices. At the same time, early compliance could reshape competition, favouring companies that adapt quickly.
While this measure may seem limited, it targets an industry responsible for nearly 10% of global CO₂ emissions and enormous resource consumption, including thousands of litres of water for a single garment. By addressing even one practice – destroying unsold goods – the EU could trigger broader change in a system long driven by waste. More importantly, it may represent a first step, signalling that further regulations could follow – both at an EU and international level – as policymakers increasingly turn their attention to the environmental and social costs of fast fashion, marking an important shift toward a more sustainable model for the industry.
The possible escalation of Malian civil war and the risk of a humanitarian crisis
By Riccardo De Ambroggi
In 2020 the mutiny of part of Malian army led to a military coup that brought to power the triumvirate Assimi Goïta, Malick Diaw e Sadio Camara with the declared purpose of leading the country until new elections take place. In 2026, the election day never happened but a new wave of violence can change again the political status quo in the West-African nation.
On April 25 and 26, a sudden combined offensive from the two major rebel group in Mali put serious pressure on the military junta trough several simultaneous attacks to military basis and cities. The violence perpetrated included the seizure of northern cities and the assassination of the defense minister Sadio Camara, managing also to partially isolate the capital Bamako by blocking roads and assaulting checkpoints. The two groups of subversives who conducted the insurrection are the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), the Tuareg separatists, and the jihadist group JNIM linked to al-Qaeda. The attack exposes the weakness of the military rulers to pursuit an effective security strategy while in power.
The unprecedent alliance between Touareg nationalist and the Islamic terrorists put in severe danger the military junta, decapitating one head of the Cerberus who has ruled the country for the last 6 years. Goïta’s government replied to the offensive causing a large crackdown and starting to wipe out all the political opposition.
In the next months, the military will probably fight back and try to keep the situation stable at least around the capital, also thanks to the Russian mercenary soldiers that operates in Mali and is likely to succeed in the next few weeks. But this will offer the rebels the opportunity to consolidate their positions in the Northern and Eastern regions of the country, respectively by FLA and JNIM.
The consolidation of these three areas of control will fragment the country even more, and if the alliance between separatists and jihadists will hold, the junta would need the support of foreign countries in order to gain back the control over the disputed territories. But this help may arrive from bordering nations as well as from global superpowers, anxious to put their hands on Malian resources and gain a precious ally in the middle of Africa.
Another scenario, less likely to happen than the previous one, is that the FLA-JNIM alliance will manage to oust the military junta and replace it, but there are several risks of internal tensions that can explode eruptively, making this the worst possible case for Malian population.
Over the political aspects of a possible civil war shaking the country, the humanitarian side is the most worrying, since the repeated fights and the guerrilla actions to cut out the opponents will create several issues to the population, that risks to face shortages of electricity, food and water supplies, over than the most obvious one of being involved in a clash between the two factions.
Mali is going towards a spiral of death and famine that will kneel down the whole country, pushing the hope of a brighter future even further from reality.
Immersed in controversy, the 2026 World Cup will begin in June
By Diego de Carvalho
On June 11th, the 2026 World Cup will take off in Mexico, marking the beginning of the world’s most popular and impactful sports tournament. Fourty-eight teams will face off in over one-hundred matches throughout the months of June and July in North America’s three largest countries: Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
While Mexico and Canada are surely grappling with their own political struggles, the World Cup will take place in a chaotic period of American history. The United States’ swashbuckling foreign policy under the second Trump administration has alienated many of the country’s closest allies in Europe. Further, America’s war with Iran has jeopardized the Iranian national team’s participation in the World Cup, raising questions about whether America’s aggressive diplomacy allow it to be a fitting host of such an important competition.
Along with the politics, the tournament itself will be surrounded by insatisfaction with FIFA and the USA’s organization. Prices are absurdly high even as close as one month away from the beginning of the competition, and some have feared that we may see half-empty stadiums, a scenario which seemed unfathomable in previous tournaments. Additionally, the Trump administration’s hostile immigration policy has made it hard for tourists from all parts of the globe to reach the United States, endangering the World Cup’s inherently global nature. Even from a sporting perspective, the United States is seen by many football aficionados as a country which does not understand the sport and which has tried to impose many of its own sports traditions, such as half-time shows and announcing referees, onto the tournament.
Some of these criticisms may yet be overblown. Criticism was levied at Qatar’s hosting in 2022, but most concerns were quickly overshadowed by the tournament’s wide success. However, the 2026 World Cup will place the whole world’s eyes on American society, which faces crises not only in its politics and economy, but also in its culture and identity.
Is Europe prioritizing its long-term defense?
By Alice Di Terlizzi
As the international community is being reshaped, starting from the US reconsidering their NATO alliance and the increasing diffusion of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), Europe is rearranging its defense spending, especially investing in new disruptive technology that now revolves around drones’ development. The US presidency has been sending messages about its reluctance to live behind Europe’s shadow, and is indeed conveying a powerful message that had already impacted the morale of European policymakers during the 2025 JD Vance speech at the Munich Security Conference. As a response, the EU is committed to spending €800bn on defense over a four-year time span, with Keir Starmer likely to express alignment with broader European defense policies to show progress after Labour’s heavy losses in Thursday’s elections.
A new frontier has been arising that establishes a focus on defense sovereignty, conceived as “the ability to make and use weaponry without unreliable America’s help” , which goes in parallel with an implicitly ongoing competition with Silicon Valley rivals; the latter is likely to escalate into a proper fight that will crown the best-suited hegemon to be dominating the cyber world of AI-automated weapons. Ongoing debate is targeting the necessity to strike a balance between “survivable” versus “attritable” weapons ownership, with the former still tied to a kinetic type of warfare entailing the human component when conducting military operations, and the latter targeting the exploitability of weapons which can be used without an exceeding worry of them being destroyed. The shift from kinetic to cyber warfare is inscribed with Europe’s understanding that “we should be able to stand up on our own two feet”, which is inextricably linked to the framing of “sovereignty” as tied to the dimension of “control” over one’s weapon stock. Unmanned aerial vehicles have, indeed, prompted “a radical transformation in how defense technology is built”, and decisions on whether to use them will likely play a relevant role in sustaining Europe’s prosperity and freedom in the long run.
The future of European security is in the hands of Europe itself: the reversibility and easier-to-get weaponry to carry out cyberattacks feature an element of novelty, that allows for plausible deniability while noxiously legitimizing attacks carried out under the threshold of what constitutes an “armed conflict” under NATO Article 5, which creates an operational gray zone that is very much taken advantage of by global superpowers. Europe is now at a crossroads: its deliberation on whether to become defense self-reliant will entail considerable spillovers, that will matter for determining its capacity to acquire LAWS, especially drones, so as to cope with the global race to master increasingly important AI capabilities.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
From my background in classical studies to completing my bachelor’s degree across three different countries, learning something new has always been what fuels my curiosity — whether inside a GIO class or in a conversation with a stranger. That curiosity has grown into strong interests across diverse fields, from international relations to languages or the arts. Writing is the tool that allows me to connect and make sense of them all.
Hello everyone! My name is Teodora and I’m a 3rd year BIEM student from Bucharest, Romania. I spend my free time reading up on political issues from around the world and I’m particularly keen on topics concerning the European Union. On a more personal note, I’m passionate about art history, music and writing about the world around me.
I’m Veronika. I grew up in the US but am half-Italian, half-Polish. I’m a first-year BIEM student and am interested in not only economics, but fashion, politics, books, and getting to know the community around me.
