Today’s issue of the Monday Briefing focuses on the newly escalated conflict in the Middle East. Read about the air force actions, diplomatic development and human tragedy. In other news, Mexico is swept by Cartels’ violence and Bolivian indigenous communities protect the forest. EU aid to Ukraine is halted and Zimbabwe bans mineral exports.
Spotlight: US and Israeli Strike Iran, Decapitating the Regime.
In the early hours of Saturday, 28th of February, US and Israeli forces in the Middle East started a bombing campaign on Iran that continues to this moment. After weeks of military buildup and fruitless negotiations in Geneve, President Donald Trump has launched his strike on the Islamic Republic, in an unprecedented escalation aimed explicitly at toppling the Islamist Regime in Teheran. In a matter of hours, US and Israeli strikes provoked the death of many high levels Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader of country, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Since the end of January, when the Islamic Regime had suppressed in a bloodbath the widespread popular protests, killing more than 30,000 civilians, US posture against Iran changed. Trump turned to the more hawkish voices in his administration and increased substantially American military presence in the Middle East, moving air and naval forces from Europe and the Caribbeans. In the meanwhile, negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program continued in Geneve: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, special envoys of the President, met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, in an attempt to reach a new agreement on Uranium enrichment and the ballistic missile program. Talks proved to be useless in the end, as American and Israeli forces attacked Teheran on the 28th of February.
Trying to convey the complex military operations that unfolded and that are unfolding in the skies of Iran is no easy task. I have read several great articles on the matter, and I suggest to anyone else interested the NYT one. In essence, Israeli and American air and naval units have obtained air superiority and struck several key targets in Iran, aiming first at minimizing the country’s capability to strike back with its own missiles. Nonetheless, multiple retaliatory attacks have been launched since the start of combat, aimed not only at American and Israeli installations but at most other countries in the region. Most notably, Gulf countries have been targeted and hit heavily: the city of Dubai has been at the center of public attention as hotels have been photographed in flames and the International Airport has been attacked. Civilian casualties, on both sides of the conflict, are mounting by the hour.
The most prominent fatalities of these first days have been those in the Iranian high command. Several figures of the government and the armed forces have been successfully targeted by the Israeli and American offensive. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been killed in the first wave of attack, putting an end to 37 years of dictatorship. Thousands of Iranians, mainly around the world but also in the country, have celebrated his death, while others have mourned him in a public procession in Teheran. The Regime bled, but it is certainly not yet dead. An emergency triumvirate has been established, and Alireza Arafi has been appointed as interim Supreme Leader. The political developments within the Islamic Republic are far from over, and only time will tell what the future of the Iranian people will be.
Only eight months since the last major escalation, Iran and the rest of the Middle East are again on fire. The constant instability that has plagued the region for decades has entered yet another phase, and the endless suffering of millions continues. Planes fly and delivery their load, ships launch missiles and block the Strait of Hormuz, the powerful men of the world play once more on the life of the Middle eastern people. To everyone that is personally affected by this conflict, and by the wider consequences that the attacks have triggered, goes my deepest sympathy. Today it is almost impossible to hope, and to see brightness in the sky clouded by debris and fuel. Yet it is up to us, the people of the world, if we really believe that an alternative to war is possible, to make those hopes reality and to imagine a better future for Iran and for all the other nations hit by this dreadful conflict.
World News
UN Security Council meets after U.S. – Israeli strike on Iran
On February 28th, 2026, an emergency Security Council has been called by French President Emmanuel Macron to address the U.S. – Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. As conflictual interactions are inflaming on the Iranian territory, acting as the propellant for political coordination at the European level, U.S. President D.J. Trump publicly addresses Iranian people as the ones who should be taking over their long-non-contested theocratic government. Besides objective conflict-like turmoil, political tension is being unleashed between European leaders, who now come to question their loyalty to the democratic alliance with the United States. As Macron puts it, “the outbreak of war among the United States, Israel and Iran has serious consequences for peace and international security”. U.S.-allied France and Germany indeed acknowledge the threat posed by unilateral military action in Iran, while exhibiting surprised worry as they comment on the allegedly unexpected escalation of events undertaken by the U.S.
The pursuit of a negotiated peace is to be looked at as a tangible objective on the side of European Leaders, who must credibly commit to the cause of war avoidance to prevent its disastrous escalation and, thus, respect the boundaries of international law. A peace-driven agreement needs to stem from Iran’s choice not to advance nuclear ambitions, but rather to drive intra-popular change aimed at achieving Iranian freedom. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed alignment with France and Germany’s rejection of conflict worsening, which was also backed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, openly unsupportive of actions that jeopardize global security.
United States and Iran’s failed negotiation attempt leaves little room for optimistic imagination, as it faces the concrete danger of a new and extensive war in the Middle East. European Leaders released on Saturday a joint statement that follows Ursula von der Leyen’s mandate “to exercise maximum restraint, to protect civilians, and to fully respect international law”. On the same tone, UN Secretary General has called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities and de-escalation”. As Qatar reserves the right to respond to Iran’s attacks on its territory, war escalation features the danger to promote nuclear weapon usage. However, worrying on the latter may be exploited to justify non-transparency in war intentions which, as said by Russia’s Foreign Ministry, aim at producing regime change.
Killing of Drug Lord Results in Outburst of Violence in Mexico
by Diego de Carvalho
On Sunday, February 22nd, the Mexican Army killed the drug lord Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known by his alias “El Mencho”. In the operation’s aftermath, Mexico has been taken by a large amount of violence, especially in the state of Jalisco, where El Mencho was killed.
El Mencho had been the leader of one of Mexico’s largest drug organizations, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), and was considered the country’s most wanted man. Attempts to apprehend El Mencho by the Mexican government or the USA’s Drug Enforcement Agency date back to 2012. On Sunday, the Mexican Army invaded a rural compound where El Mencho was staying in the town of Tapalpa. He was shot in the ensuing confrontation and died in police custody.
The repercussions of his death were immediate. Across the country, armed groups have blockaded roads and set fire to buildings. The CJNG has been known to use public violence as an intimidatory tactic against both its rivals and the authorities.
The violence was particularly widespread in CJNG’s main area of operation, Jalisco’s capital, Guadalajara, where the airport was taken by criminals and people had to stay overnight in restaurants and the city’s zoo due to a lack of security. Guadalajara is Mexico’s third largest metropolitan area and has been known as “Mexico’s Silicon Valley.” The city is also set to host four games in the upcoming 2026 World Cup.
Although the chaos has mostly subsided, the outburst of violence reveals the infiltration of criminal organizations into Mexican society. Even as Mexico has found increased economic and social prosperity, criminality remains endemic in the country, a theme common throughout Latin America. Polls have found 56% of Mexicans consider violence and crime as their primary worry – only Chile, Sweden, and Peru have rates higher than this.
Crime has also been a major issue for Mexico’s diplomatic relationships with its largest economic partner and neighbor, the United States. The Trump administration has repeatedly pressured Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum to crack down on drug trade and dismantle the country’s cartels. Sunday’s operations signal that, in a context of increased American interventionism in Latin America, the Mexican government is ceding to these pressures, despite the turmoil and social upheaval that such intense crackdowns may cause.
Further, while incendiary operations such as these do indicate a stricter security policy, it is unclear whether they effectively curb crime in the long-term. Historically speaking, the death of a drug kingpin tends to instead result in an uptick in violence, as factions struggle for power. Yet killings like El Mencho’s will score political and diplomatic points, even as efficient repression of criminality remains elusive throughout most of the continent.
Indigenous Communities in Bolivia Safeguard the Amazon Rainforest
by Veronika Lizier-Zmudzinski
Indigenous communities in Bolivia are playing a massive role in protecting nearly one million hectares of the Amazon rainforest, demonstrating how traditional knowledge and modern conservation strategies can work hand in hand.
Across the Bolivian Amazon, Indigenous nations such as the Tacana, Tsimané, Mosetén, and others manage vast forest territories that are legally recognized as Indigenous lands. Within these areas, communities have strengthened forest governance, conducted biodiversity monitoring, and enforced sustainable land-use rules that prevent illegal activities.
By combining satellite technology with on-the-ground patrols, Indigenous forest guardians track deforestation threats in real time. Community-led management plans regulate hunting, fishing, and timber harvesting to ensure that resources remain for future generations.
The protection of nearly one million hectares is significant not only for Bolivia but for the global climate. The Amazon rainforest stores vast amounts of carbon, stabilizes regional rainfall patterns, and supports biodiversity. Studies consistently show that deforestation rates are lower in Indigenous-managed lands than in surrounding areas.
Zimbabwe bans exports on raw materials
by Riccardo de Ambrogi
On Wednesday, Zimbabwe Minister of Mines and Mining Development Polite Kambamura declared the imposition of an immediate ban on exports of lithium and other strategical mineral resources. The ban, already scheduled to come into action on January 2027, aims to tighten government’s control on the industry, but also to “ensure transparency, in-country value addition and beneficiation, compliance, and accountability in the exportation of Zimbabwe’s mineral resources” as stated by Kambamura.
In a letter to the national Chamber of Mines, which represents major mining companies, the ministry explained that the decision was taken due to concerns about “continued malpractices during the export of minerals.”
The country holds the largest lithium reserves in Africa and the mineral industry account for more than 14% of GDP. An important share of the extraction products are exported to China for further processing in batteries manufacturing, with many Chinese mining firms who have made huge investments in Zimbabwe. This shift in the regulation of access to these resources deeply impact the role of the government in export negotiation, given the importance of lithium in technologies and other fundamental goods and services
European News
EU Aid to Ukraine delayed by Hungarian Veto
by Teodora Stefan
Last week, Hungary blocked around €105 billion in European Union funding for Ukraine, casting a shadow over a high-profile visit by top EU leaders to Kyiv marking the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
European officials had planned to present the financial package, alongside a new round of sanctions against Moscow, as a show of unity amid stalled U.S.-led peace negotiations. Instead, Hungary’s Kremlin-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orbán halted both initiatives, citing a dispute over the Druzhba oil pipeline.
The proposed loan was designed to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities and cover budget shortfalls over the next two years, including financing weapons purchases. EU institutions and member states have already committed more than €220 billion in support since 2022.
Budapest has stated that it decided to withhold approval due to disruptions to the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia through Ukraine. Ukrainian officials attribute recent damage to a Russian strike, while Hungary and Slovakia accuse Kyiv of deliberately restricting supplies. Kyiv has condemned Hungary’s move as “blackmail,” and Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has accused Ukraine of acting “in a very hostile way.”
Orbán has previously used his veto power to delay EU aid and sanctions packages before ultimately allowing them to pass, often after securing concessions. In December, all 27 EU leaders, including Orbán, backed the loan plan on the condition that Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic would be shielded from related costs.
EU officials hope the impasse will be temporary, though the standoff highlights the bloc’s vulnerability to internal divisions when consensus is required.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
I’m Veronika. I grew up in the US but am half-Italian, half-Polish. I’m a first-year BIEM student and am interested in not only economics, but fashion, politics, books, and getting to know the community around me.
Hello everyone! My name is Teodora and I’m a 3rd year BIEM student from Bucharest, Romania. I spend my free time reading up on political issues from around the world and I’m particularly keen on topics concerning the European Union. On a more personal note, I’m passionate about art history, music and writing about the world around me.
