In our collective imagination, we often associate Africa with a vast and fascinating land, rich in places to explore. However, at the same time, it still remains a largely underdeveloped continent – both in economical and institutionalterms – with a high poverty rate.
In addition, due to prevailing media narratives, we tend to link it mainly to issues like migration and refugee camps – forgetting instead the opportunities that this land is able to provide.
I recently had the opportunity to participate in the Forum “Geopolitics 2025: how to invest in sub-Saharan Africa”, organized by Il Sole 24 Ore. During the meeting, which was attended by distinguished guests from the institutional, economic and academic world, it was discussed the great opportunities that sub-Saharan Africa can offer to the world – and in particular to Italy.
As a matter of fact, this continent possesses 30% of the world’s mineral resources and it holds 60% of the arable land not yet exploited. Some of its areas are experiencing constant demographic growth, urban, infrastructural and purchasing power.
The presenters of the meeting emphasized the importance of avoiding references to this continent as a single, homogeneous entity. Instead, we should speak of “Africas” in the plural. Indeed, with 55 countries and more than 3000 languages and dialects spoken, the internal differences are substantial and not to be underestimated.
Therefore, these territories should not be seen merely as objects of our interest, but a strong political and negotiating force.
“There is too little talk about Africa and this lack of attention is concerning not only for Italy or Europe, but for the whole Western world” – says Fabio Tamburini, Editor-in-Chief of Il Sole 24 Ore – “On the other hand, our editorial team wants to set an example: our aim is to deal with Africa and its strategic importance since we are aware of how Italy represents the European springboard in the Mediterranean towards this continent”.
But for what reasons is Africa becoming such a crucial player in the global geopolitical game?
Now more than ever, it is evident that those who control natural resources’ extraction and transfer process hold significant geopolitical power. Indeed, Africa represents a strategic point for a possible reorganisation of global trade: due to current geopolitical tensions, Suez Canal – and with it, the Mediterranean – could lose centrality, opening the way for new trade routes.
This is the reason why this land has already seen the presence of influential geopolitical actors, asserting their interests through strategic investments.
One of the most influential countries is currently China, which is deeply involved in the ownership and operation of several important African ports.
As explained by Giuliano Noci, Professor of Management Engineering in Politecnico di Milano, the presence of China is not a recent phenomenon: it is rather a long-term project, led by the Chinese Communist Party, which for a couple of decades has identified Africa as a strategic priority.
“The Chinese approach is profoundly different from the Western one – explains Noci – China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the continent, focusing particularly on mineral resources and rare earths, essential for future technologies. Moreover, one often overlooked but highly relevant aspect concerns Chinese investment in African telecommunications networks. It is not just about infrastructure aid, but a real market projection, which consolidates the Chinese presence in the long term”.
Rich in resources and strategic areas, Africa is also a young and fast-growing continent. The average age of the population is only 19 years and the current 1.3 billion inhabitants are estimated to reach 2.5 billion in the next 25 years. This demographic boom will not only redefine its weight on the global stage, but it will make it the world’s largest labor pool.
If the future looks promising, what can we say about the present and how can we efficiently exploit positive trends, such as population growth, so that they do not become problems?
By dealing with both economic and demographic aspects, Lucia Ragazzi of ISPI (Istituto per gli studi di politica internazionale) offered an overall picture of the continent growth and the challenges that hinder this path.
Since the 2000s, sub-Saharan Africa has experienced almost uninterrupted economic growth. However, the pandemic crisis of 2020 caused a strong recession which was followed by a fluctuating trend. A concrete example of the difficulties was the impact of the war in Ukraine, which provoked an increase in raw material prices, further aggravating the economic conditions.
“At a global level, Africa today is part of an unstable context: the increasing international conflicts generates strong repercussions on the continent, fuelling tensions and uncertainties” – states Lucia Ragazzi.
Furthermore, this territory faces several structural problems. Firstly, the economy is not creating enough jobs to absorb the increasing amount of young people who enter the labour market each year. This demographic pressure is also combined with poverty and public debt, which limits investment opportunities in crucial sectors such as health and education. Secondly, one of the most critical issues remains climate change. Indeed, Africa is among the continents most affected by the effects of extreme weather, with severe impacts on agriculture, food security and social stability.
Last but not least, internal conflicts – such as those in Sudan and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo – generate instability and lead to the forced displacement of millions of people.
But can developed countries efficiently value African demographic and economic potential by, at the same time, countering the structural fragilities that obstacles its full affirmation?
In a first stage of analysis, it was taken into account the importance that the academic world can play. It is therefore necessary the creation of campuses in Africa that allow the promotion of research, an essential element in making innovation possible.
At the same time, another key factor is to overcome the vulnerability of energy systems in order to ensure a sustainable development. As a matter of fact, functioning infrastructures are essential not only to support the growth of energy demand but also to ensure adequate quality and reliability standards.
To address current structural weakness, it is necessary to strengthen national energy networks by making them less susceptible to blackouts and outages. To achieve this, the development of renewable sources could prove to be a winning choice: the system will be more sustainable and it will promote the decentralization of energy, reducing dependence on large power plants.
Moreover, strategic partnerships must be built to generate added value in African countries. For example, investing in on-site refining facilities and creating local industrial processing chains are efficient way to create a cooperation based on common interests and mutual growth.
Nevertheless, the promotion of research and energy efficiency are not the only issue to consider. In fact, a equally relevant aspect to take into account is the enormous agricultural potential.
This part of the meeting has seen starring Massimo Zaurrini, Director of Africa and Business, journal devoted to the economic, political and social developments of the continent. The journalist highlighted that the vastness of available arable land, still largely under-utilized, is making agriculture a strategic economic lever.
“In recent years, investments in the agricultural sector are multiplying with the aim of creating added value also from traditional crops such as tomatoes” – explains Zaurrini – “This represents a concrete attempt to move agriculture from a mere subsistence logic to an industrial and commercial dimension”.
According to a 2015 analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), about 85% of the 50 million farms in Africa have less than two hectares of land and this huge fragmentation makes it difficult to access credit, participate in irrigation programmes and introduce modern technologies. Indeed, the lack of cooperation between small producers – through cooperatives or consortia – makes it impossible to overcome this condition of production isolation.
Furthermore, only a small part of the land is currently irrigated whereas the most agriculture still depends on rainfall, which makes it extremely vulnerable to climate change.
In order to unlock its agricultural potential, it is therefore necessary to promote forms of association between small producers, increase investments in sustainable agricultural technologies, irrigation and mobilization infrastructure.
Are there concrete initiatives underway to unlock the economic potential of African rural areas?
The answer is yes. One of the most ambitious infrastructure projects currently underway is the Corridor of Lobito, a strategic initiative destined to revolutionize mobility in central and southern Africa.
It consists of a multimodal corridor which crosses Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, with an extension of about 1,300 kilometres.
“The project, with a total cost of around USD 10 billion, aims to reduce travel times for people and goods by about two-thirds compared to current timelines” – explains Andrea Spinelli Barrile, Editor, Author, and Co-Founder of Slow News – “In addition to improving the connection between inland and coastal regions, it will promote commercial and industrial mobility by stimulating trade and investment”.
Nevertheless, the realization of this encountered local resistance, in particular from the economic players who benefit from road transport. That said, even if changing the status quo could upset local economic balances, designing infrastructures today means investing in tomorrow’s generations, who will be able to make the best use of these connections to develop new economic and social models.
In a bipolar world increasingly shaped by US-China rivalry, how can the European Union avoid remaining a marginal player in Africa? What role should it play to assert its presence and build long-term partnerships on the continent?
According to Mehret Tewolde, Executive Chief Italia Africa Business Week, a crucial starting point for Europe – and particularly Italy – is to change the way of thinking about Africa only in emergency terms: we can not hide issues such as immigration and conflicts but at the same time this should not be the only focus of media attention.
Even though many still fail to see this continent as a land of opportunity, Africa is already attracting significant foreign investment and recent alliances have been made aimed to promote a bridge for cooperation.
The Italian Mattei Plan stands as an example of an initiative that aims to move beyond a purely emergency-driven view. This plan is a strategic project of diplomacy and investment of Italy to strengthen and renew ties with the continent. Forthe first phase, the Government has identified nine pilot countries: Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Kenya. In January 2025 five more have been added to the list: Angola, Ghana, Mauritania, Tanzania and Senegal.
“The Mattei plan, in these first 18 months of operation, has been fundamental for the growth of the attention on the African continent by the public and private sector” – explains Lorenzo Ortona, Deputy Coordinator of the Mattei Plan Implementation Structure – “The real novelty today is the development of a strategic vision based on a well-defined national interest. The contribution of the private sector remains essential to promote, together with African partners, a sustainable and shared development”.
Finally, the internationalisation process is a crucial element. Such ambitious goals cannot be achieved within national boundaries: strong alliances with strategic partners and international financial institutions must be built. In this perspective, instruments such as the Mattei Plan must be able to fit into a wider network that includes actors such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the European Union itself.
But can the Mattei Plan really become an instrument of equitable and lasting development for Africa, built on the basis of cooperation and mutual respect? Or is it likely to remain a great missed opportunity, both for Italy and for the entire African continent?
Curious to learn more? Check out this link: https://24oreventi.ilsole24ore.com/forum-geopolitica-2025/media/
The images featured in the article are from the Fotogallery of the event.
