In a 2019 live television interview, the then-leader of Turkey’s main opposition party, the CHP (Republican People’s Party), Kemal Kilicdaroglu, was laughed at by the moderator when he claimed that his party would win control of Turkey’s five largest cities in the upcoming local elections. These cities were Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Antalya, and Bursa. At the time, only Izmir was under CHP rule; the other major cities had mayors affiliated with Erdogan’s ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party), with Istanbul and Ankara under AKP control for over 20 years. In an increasingly authoritarian Turkey, many, including the moderator, saw Kilicdaroğlu’s claim as implausible. However, Kilicdaroglu proved them wrong.
In 2019, Turkish voters went to the polls to elect local authorities, including mayors in all 81 cities, with 30 being metropolitan municipalities with broader mandates. While local elections don’t directly impact Erdogan’s rule, they can signal shifts in political trends and voter dissatisfaction with government policies. With its 16 million people, Istanbul receives considerable attention during elections. As Europe’s largest city, it is Turkey’s financial, social, and political hub, making it a high-stakes battleground. A former Istanbul mayor himself, Erdogan is known to place special emphasis on keeping Istanbul under AKP control.
The 2019 local elections marked a significant shift in Turkish politics. The AKP nominated a high-profile former prime minister for the Istanbul mayoral race. Meanwhile, the opposition camp adopted a new strategy. To unseat Erdogan-aligned mayors, four opposition parties, led by the CHP, formed an ideologically diverse electoral coalition called the Nation Alliance. This alliance included a nationalist, an Islamist, and a center-right party alongside the center-left CHP. The Nation Alliance backed joint candidates in major cities, endorsing Ekrem Imamoglu in Istanbul and Mansur Yavas in Ankara. The strategy succeeded: CHP candidates, supported by the alliance, won in Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Antalya. Losing Istanbul was a huge blow to Erdogan, who famously said: “Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey.”
The first terms of CHP mayors in Istanbul and Ankara (2019-2024) were widely regarded as successful. Both Imamoglu and Yavas gained popularity among voters. Imamoglu appealed to a diverse audience, from Kurds to conservatives, while Yavas was supported by Turkish nationalists. Due to their popularity, many hoped one of them would challenge Erdogan in the 2023 elections. Instead, both mayors ran as vice presidential candidates for the Nation Alliance’s presidential candidate, Kilicdaroglu. For the 2023 general elections, the alliance expanded to include two more parties that had recently split from the AKP. Six leaders of the alliance regularly held meetings to plan a political agenda to implement if they unseated Erdogan. These meetings dominated the headlines, earning the alliance an informal nickname: “The Table of Six.”
Kilicdaroglu ultimately lost in 2023, and the opposition coalition collapsed. He was replaced as CHP leader following his defeat. Many believed the electoral alliance was crucial to opposition victories in cities like Istanbul and Ankara; without it, they thought Erdogan’s candidates would likely win by a plurality. Thus, the collapse of the opposition alliance was seen as a potential threat to Imamoglu’s and Yavas’ chances in the 2024 local elections, especially as Istanbul’s race was expected to be very tight. Erdogan chose Murat Kurum, a former minister, to challenge Imamoglu, and the government used all means available to prevent Imamoglu from securing a second term. Nevertheless, Imamoglu won decisively in 2024, with the CHP securing control of most Istanbul districts for the first time since Erdogan’s rise to power. Nationally, the CHP won almost 38% of the total vote, marking its first election victory since 1977. The 2024 local elections delivered the first major loss to Erdogan’s ruling AKP since its founding in 2002.
As a long-time CHP member, Imamoglu first served as the mayor of Beylikdüzü, a district in Istanbul, before being chosen as the CHP’s Istanbul candidate, which gave him national recognition. Since 2019, he has been regarded as a successful mayor, known for effective policies and his appeal to a broad spectrum of voters. His administration has prioritized expanding social support for low-income Istanbulites through affordable transportation and financial assistance programs. Additionally, he focused on extending metro lines and invested in water transportation as an alternative for congested urban areas. Beyond his policies, Imamoglu is widely seen as an effective communicator. Unlike Erdogan, he frames his message around common ground rather than polarization, contributing to his popularity among Kurdish voters. Many still see Imamoglu as the only politician capable of challenging Erdogan’s regime.
Erdogan has leveraged the judiciary to curb Imamoglu’s momentum. In a 2022 court ruling, Imamoglu was banned from politics for allegedly insulting a Supreme Election Council official by calling them “stupid.” For now, the political ban and a related jail sentence await appeals, leaving Imamoglu’s political future uncertain. This was not the first time Erdogan used the courts against Imamoglu. In 2019, Imamoglu initially won Istanbul’s mayoral election by a slim margin of 13,000 votes. Despite multiple recounts that found no irregularities, the Supreme Election Council ordered a rerun under pressure from Erdogan. However, Imamoglu won the rerun by a margin of half a million votes, sending a clear message to Erdogan.
The 2019 local elections were a turning point, not only symbolically but also practically, as the opposition demonstrated its ability to govern effectively. Imamoglu’s success as mayor boosted his confidence and popularity, making him the most prominent figure in discussions about opposition candidates for 2028. With the CHP’s nationwide victory in 2024 and Imamoglu’s win in Istanbul, opposition supporters feel they are a step closer to ending the Erdogan era. The Istanbul example highlights the potential of local elections to shift domestic political dynamics and serves as a reminder that hope persists even in competitive authoritarian regimes. After all, Erdogan was right: “Whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.”
I am an Istanbulite trying to adapt to life in Milan. I study political science here at Bocconi, and it is my first year. My interests include politics, the environment, culture, and society. I feel like it is my job to stay up to date about pop culture and socio-political events happening all around the world, and I see myself on a mission to create a better everyday life for people and the planet.
