Summer is over, the Monday Briefing is back! France is ungovernable (again…), Guineans head to the polls to vote on Civilian Rule and the Talibans restrict even more on women’s freedom. In Europe, new regulations on Consumers’ Data and a Cyber Attack. The semester couldn’t have started better!
Spotlight: France, the new sick man of Europe.
“Today the Sick Man of Europe is France”. These are words of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right party Rassemblement National, mere days after the resignation of the prime minister François Bayrou on September 8th. President Macron, encircled from the left and the right oppositions, has nominated the 6th head of government of his tenure, choosing Sébastien Lecornu for the almost impossible task of governing the country. But what happened to the once healthy second economy of the EU, which today many consider to be far more in trouble than any of its partners?
Political crisis in France has always been a constant, going back to the third and fourth Republics in particular. During these historical periods the average duration of a French government was nine and six months respectively, clearly underlying the need for institutional stability. The fifth republic was born exactly for that, sponsored mainly by President Charles De Gaulle in 1958. Thanks to a stronger presidential role and a weaker parliament, results were remarkable, with the average duration of a government slightly above two years and six months.
The current political crisis can find its origin in the tumultuous summer of 2024. Following the defeat of his party at the European Elections of June, President Macron called for a snap vote, in what many defined as a risky political gamble of the Élysée. Since then, the National Assembly has been divided in three major blocks, which have hardly collaborated on any major law in the last year and a half. The New Popular Front, headed by the populist leader Melanchon, is the larger group in parliament, but it is extremely divided and fragile. On the opposite side of the aisle there is Le Pen and her far-right coalition, which has not been weakened in the polls by the recent scandal regarding the use of European funds. In the middle, ever more isolated, lies Macron and his new Premier Lecornu.
The casus belli for the most recent government crisis has been the budget law. Bayrou, well aware of the dire situation of France’s finances, tried to push for a more fiscally responsible budget, with the aim of reducing deficit to 4.6% of GDP, from last year 5.6%. This target, far from being within the EU admitted 3% deficit, was utterly rejected by both opposition parties, which have both campaigned on more public spending and tax cuts in the past. For this reason, the premier called for a vote of confidence on September 8th, coming out defeated.
This political instability is especially negative for the future prospect of the France economy. For the first time ever French bonds yields, which can be used as a measure of borrowing costs, are the same as Italy’s, who has always been considered much more fiscally and politically unstable. Paris is now the third most indebted country in the EU, after Greece and Italy, with more than 113% of GDP. Some policy makers in France and abroad have started to talk about a possible bailout request from the IMF, even though this possibility is still quite far off.
The political future of France lies uncertain. Some sort of budget law will have to be drafted soon, with the support of at least one of the two opposition parties. This almost impossible task falls in the hands of Lecornu, which up until this week was the Minister of the Armed Forces. Early elections, even presidential ones, are not impossible, as the only way to make the country governable again might be passing through a popular vote. In the meanwhile, the people of France have taken the streets day after day, protesting against the new government and the budget cuts it is expected to try. And yet, endless deficit is certainly not a feasible policy. One thing is certain: the political experiment which has been Macronism, with the power at the center of the political spectrum, will not survive the mandates of its founder.
World News
by Riccardo De Ambrogi and Alice Di Terlizzi
Constitutional referendum in Guinea to restore civilian rule
While all over the world many countries are having an authoritarian shift, in Guinea the constitutional referendum can make democracy gain the place it belongs after four years.
On Sunday 21st, the 6.7 million citizens of the Republic of Guinea have voted to a constitutional referendum to shift to a civilian rule promoted by the Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who became president after the 2021 military coup. The fact that the non-elected president is promoting this referendum could seem a way to legitimize his power, but to understand better the situation it’s important to analyze the reasons behind the coup. On the 5th of September 2021, Special Forces soldiers stormed the presidential palace in Conakry, detaining President Alpha Condé and announcing on national television that the government had been dissolved.
The coup has taken place after former president Condè modified the constitution to avoid the term limit and stay in power for a third mandate, a move opponents decried as a “constitutional coup”, by a president that was marked by accusations of rampant corruption, economic mismanagement, and a violent crackdown on dissent, eroding his legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens. When Doumbouya became president, promised a democratization of the country and after four years the citizens can finally vote for a civilian rule. The voting results won’t be easy to gather due to the underdevelopment of rural areas, but polls show that at least in the capital city the referendum was gladly welcomed by the citizenry. While the referendum is seen as a step towards elections and the return to civilian rule in Guinea, Doumbouya’s opponents have criticized it as a power grab by him. Only the future elections can tell if the new sun that is dawning on the West African country after this referendum is the sun of democracy.
The Taliban ban cancels female educational rights in Afghanistan
Being a woman is per se a biological impairment within the Taliban rules, that have regained power four years ago in Afghanistan and are now marginalizing the female figure in a more subtle and mortifying way. The Taliban government has banned the divulgation of books written by women in Afghan Universities, along with prohibiting any teachings addressing the female condition in today’s societies. Spreading knowledge over gender and women’s contributions is defined as in contrast with the doctrinal principles of Sharia and is further reaffirmed through the educational ban that prevents young girls from pursuing their studies over the sixth grade.
On an additional note, the conflictual heritage that inhibits peaceful interactions between Iran and Afghanistan sees stark oppositions on both sides, as exemplified by Iran expatriating 1.5 million Afghans living across the border and by the Taliban depriving Afghan higher education of its relevant Iranian literature. Indoctrination translates thus into the epitome of a noxious intellectual dictatorship, that elevates its dogmas to discriminating rules of law and constraints the boundaries of self-development in Afghanistan, where education is contingent on ideology and drowns into the void of its academic incompletion.
European News
by Cristiana Murè
EU Moves to Exclude Tech Giants from Consumer Finance Data
In the upcoming weeks, the Financial Data Access (FiDA) regulation’s final rounds of discussions will begin after more than two years of work. Its main intent is that of facilitating access to financial data, strengthening interoperability between financial institutions, insurance companies and other relevant players.
Between these players, however, there is a notable exclusion. With Germany’s backing, the EU is indeed taking steps to exclude Meta, Apple, Google, and Amazon from the data sharing system that will allow for the creation of consumer-facing digital finance products. A decision like this would give banks a big assist in competing against Big Tech companies, who they fear will exploit their data to replace them as intermediaries from their customers and take away a lot of the value of knowing how people save and spend.
Cyberattack Causes Disruptions at Major European Airports
Over the weekend, Collins Aerospace, a U.S.-based company whose software manages check-in, boarding passes, and luggage processing, was the target of a cyberattack that affected several major European airports, including London Heathrow, Berlin Brandenburg and Brussels. These and many other airports were forced to switch back to manual check-in and boarding processes as a result of the hack. Due to Collins’ failure to provide a secure upgrade for the compromised system, the airport in Brussels called for the cancellation of almost half of Sunday’s departures.
This accident puts under the spotlight the vulnerability of the sector, as its reliance on third-party digital infrastructure amplifies concern over centralized risk, especially when one software provider with wide reach becomes a single point of failure, affecting millions of passengers and a vast network of economic activity.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
I am currently completing a MSc in Economics and Management of Innovation and Technology at Bocconi University. Through writing, I try to analyze and comprehend the world around me, while also reflecting my interest for behavioral economics, philosophy, and physics. A deep curiosity motivates me to always explore different fields and consider various and contrasting perspectives.
