In today’s Issue of the Monday Briefing we focus on the ongoing Ukrainian Conflict. In other news we will cover the new FBI director and the new developments in the Middle East. In Europe all eyes are on the German Federal Elections.
Spotlight: The war in Ukraine enters its fourth year.
On February 24th, 2022, Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shocking Europe, the world and a young man interested in politics. I remember vividly how I felt that day: the world where I, and my generation with me, had grown was over, forever. War had come to Europe once more, and this time it was here to stay. Three whole years have passed, since that dreadful day, and war in Ukraine still rages on, even though the end seems to be as close as ever. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine this is not the end they hoped for.
Since Donald Trump retook office as President of the US, in January, the war has entered a new and unpredictable phase. The prospect of peace negotiations seems to be more and more concrete, as the American administration has met with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia to discuss possible terms of settlement. In an unprecedented act of defiance towards its European and Ukrainian allies, the US did not consult neither before this meeting. The Ukrainian President Zelensky has refused a draft proposed by the Americans which included US control on Ukrainian mining operations, up until a total of 500 billion dollars would be repaid.
Donald Trump responded to this Ukrainian refusal in his usual way, by directly attacking Zelensky and his whole country. The US president called its counterpart a “modestly successful comedian” turned into a “dictator”, as he refuses to hold immediate election due to martial law. Soon after Trump accused Ukraine of having started the war, which might seem to you exactly like the Russian propaganda we have heard over and over in the last years until you remember that in the Kremlin’s version it was NATO expansionism towards the east that caused the conflict. So, really, the American President is blaming none other than the United States of America for the war. What a time to be alive.
The recent developments have been so shocking for the whole world that, I am confident, not even in his most optimistic dreams, Putin was picturing this outcome. The Russian Federation now stands much stronger than before, barely victorious on the battlefield and internationally justified by what had been its strongest adversary up until a month ago. The UN Security Council is set to vote for a resolution, proposed by the US, that calls for a “swift end” to the conflict, but that does not address Russia as the aggressor in the war.
And Europe? After last week Munich security conference Europe has somehow tried to come together for a joint action plan. Spearheaded by the British Prime Minister Starmer and the French President Macron, European leaders have met in Paris, to discuss the Ukrainian developments. On the table there is the continuation of support for Kyiv, something that Europe alone cannot sustain for long, and the peacekeeping mission after a peace agreement has been reached. Even though Starmer and Macron have expressed joint support, other EU leaders did not seem so keen. The soon-to-be-replaced Scholz and Polish PM Tusk have declared that it is too early for any solution, while Giorgia Meloni was even more critical. As millions across the continent call for action and support for their Ukrainian brothers, European nations are once more incapable of acting united and stand idle in such perilous times.
Around the World
US Senate confirms Kash Patel for a 10-year term to lead the FBI
The U.S. Senate confirmed Kash Patel as FBI director in a narrow 51-49 vote, with all Republicans supporting him except Senators Murkowski and Collins. Democrats strongly opposed Patel, citing concerns about his lack of experience and political biases. Senator Durbin warned that Patel’s leadership could compromise the FBI’s neutrality. Patel, in turn, thanked Trump and pledged to restore public trust in law enforcement.
Critics fear Patel will use the FBI for political purposes, given past statements suggesting he might target Trump’s opponents. His controversial background includes roles in Trump’s administration, conflicts with intelligence officials, and promoting election fraud claims. He has also suggested repurposing the FBI headquarters as a museum.
Unlike Patel, past FBI directors received overwhelming bipartisan support. Christopher Wray was confirmed in 2017 with 92 votes, James Comey in 2013 with 93, and Robert Mueller in 2001 with a unanimous 98-0 vote, highlighting Patel’s historically narrow confirmation margin.
Hamas hands over six hostages but Israel suspends release of 600 Palestinians
Hamas released six Israeli hostages on Saturday, but Israel delayed the release of over 600 Palestinian prisoners, putting the ceasefire at risk. Prime Minister Netanyahu cited Hamas’ “violations” and “propaganda” tactics as reasons for the postponement, insisting no further prisoners would be freed until more hostages were released under proper conditions.
Hamas accused Israel of stalling and breaking the agreement. The delay has intensified tensions as negotiations for the next phase remain uncertain. While many Israelis prioritize hostage recovery, Netanyahu’s right-wing allies push for renewed military action against Hamas.
The released hostages included two Israelis with mental illnesses held captive for years. Their families expressed relief but questioned why they were detained. Hamas’ public handover ceremonies, condemned as humiliating, have fueled tensions. Meanwhile, Donald Trump reaffirmed his support for Netanyahu, citing Hamas’ mishandling of hostage remains and saying, “He is not torn. He wants to go in. He is just so angry—and as he should be.”
Trump’s tariffs present fresh headache for India’s slowing economy
Hours before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House, President Donald Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. This move came at a difficult time for India, which is grappling with an economic slowdown.
At a joint press conference, Trump stated that India would purchase F-35 fighter jets and energy resources from the U.S. while also negotiating its trade surplus with America. These deals, along with ongoing economic challenges, could further strain India’s finances. The economy is expected to grow at 6.4%, its slowest in four years, prompting the Modi government to introduce income tax relief and the central bank to cut interest rates.
Experts warn that these measures may provide only temporary relief. Many Indians remain outside the tax bracket, and unemployment remains high. Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. could force India into concessions that may negatively impact domestic industries at a fragile economic moment.
European News
by Cristiana Murè
Yesterday, February 23, snap elections were held in Germany following the collapse, in November 2024, of Chancellor Scholz’s coalition government. Over the past week several media outlets showed the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, at the head of the opinion polls with approximately 30% of the vote.
In line with the rightward shift experienced in Europe, the far-right party, Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), figured second, potentially doubling its previous vote share to around 20%. Following, the Social Democratic (SDP) and Green parties.
With a turnout of 84%, Sunday’s exit polls showed that the expectations held during the week have been confirmed with the leading party being the CDU. Nevertheless, additional time might be needed for the formation of the government given the potentially complex coalition negotiations.
Months after the European Competitiveness Report, Mario Draghi reiterated in front of the European Parliament on Tuesday, February 18, the need for swift and coordinated action in an EU that seems unable to keep up with global leaders in terms of strength and competitiveness. The former Italian premier emphasized the need for more robust action on two key areas: industry and artificial intelligence, in addition to remarks on the significance of tackling the rising energy prices and the necessity of ensuring security within the Union.
Concerning innovation, the GDPR, which raised the cost of data for EU companies by 20%, was presented as one example of how Europe continues to prioritize safety and regulation over competitiveness, while efficiency and advancement in AI models are exponential but occurring primarily outside of Europe.
While the emergence of China was the primary geopolitical factor considered when the report was first published, the EU now has critical decisions to take in light of the US administration’s tariffs. Measures of the US on China, in particular, have high chances of redirecting China’s excess capacity to Europe, further harming EU firms, which may also be drawn to increase production in the US by favorable policies.
The solution proposed by the commission to handle these concerns is the combination of EU funding instruments and government funding in a new European tool; however, the main pain point remains the need for Member States to start thinking and acting as a united body.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
I have spent most of my life in India before recently moving to Milan, where I am pursuing an MSc in Finance at Bocconi. I am interested in politics, art and culture, cinema, and travelling. Through my writing, I aspire to document important voices and present opinions. In my free time, I try to keep up with my movies-to-watch list, sample as many restaurants as I can, and find cats to pet.
I am currently completing a MSc in Economics and Management of Innovation and Technology at Bocconi University. Through writing, I try to analyze and comprehend the world around me, while also reflecting my interest for behavioral economics, philosophy, and physics. A deep curiosity motivates me to always explore different fields and consider various and contrasting perspectives.
