In today’s issue of the Monday Briefing we take a look at the Comodities market, after OPEC announcements. From the world, Tanzania’s democracy at stakes and Trump once more changes his mind. In Europe Orban is again attacking the LGBT comunity.
Spotlight: Oil prices plummet, Russia in trouble.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, more widely known as OPEC, has recently announced a much larger increase in production than expected by the market, with oil pumping that will be increased by 400.000 barrels per day in the May, equivalent to a 3-month production quantity. This has caused an immediate effect in the price of oil worldwide, which has fallen to a low which was not seen since summer of 2021.
Brent Crude, which is one of the most important indicators for the price of oil worldwide, is currently trading at 65 dollars per barrel, losing 10 dollars since early April and being almost half of the recent years record of 111 dollars in March 2022. Other oil prices, such as the Arabian and the Iranian indexes, are all trading on similar prices. This unexpected move has come in the same day in which Trump has launched his trade war on the world, something which was already expected to have a decreasing effect on global oil prices, as the demand of this commodity usually increases in time of economic growth.
The reasons behind this move by OPEC is still not clear, even though observers are pointing out some possible factors. The Cartel aim was possibly that of strengthening itself and ensuring cohesion within its ranks, after several countries had overproduced oil for a while. Kazakistan and the United Arab Emirates are among these violators. By decreasing oil prices OPEC aims at rendering overproduction less profitable, making the respect of each country’s quota more attractive. Another possible explanation comes directly from the White House, which rarely manages to stay out of our Monday Briefing. President Trump has asked the OPEC to decrease oil prices several times in the past, and this last move might in some way be connected.
The main loser of all this situation might be the Kremlin’s leader Vladimir Putin. Russia has heavily relied on gas and oil exports income in the recent years, especially after cutting ties with western economies in 2022. Russian oil, denominated Ural Crude, is currently trading at 67 dollars officially, but realistically in the real market is much cheeper, as the Moscow struggles to find buyers. The big problem from Putin is that Russian extraction costs are much higher than Arabian ones for example, and therefore the margin of profit is decreasing dangerously with these price declines.
Market uncertainty is at all times high in these days, as the world is evermore unsure of Trump’s next move. In this scenario, the OPEC decision to increase production and decrease prices could lead to unprecedented results, maybe also contributing to slow the inflationary pressures of tariffs.
Around the World
by Vatsal Aggarwal and Riccardo De Ambroggi
Opposition politician arrested in Tanzania
Throughout history protests have been often a signal of change, if not nipped in the bud. In Tanzania, judges and rulers know it well, and with the presidential elections scheduled for next October, they are putting great efforts to maintain their power using means that can be considered worryingly authoritarian. Tundu Lissu, a Tanzanian politician and anti-corruption activist was arrested on Wednesday 9th, accused of treason.
But why this accuse? And is Lissu effectively a criminal who deserves exemplary punishment or is it just a way to get rid of a tough opponent?
Lissu is the CHADEMA’s leader, the main opposition party to the CCM (“Party of Revolution”) that supports the president Samia Suluhu Hassan. The charge of treason is connected to his nationwide campaign pushing for electoral reform under the slogan “No Reforms, No Election”. Indeed, CHADEMA in the last few weeks was advocating for reforms, otherwise there is no chance of a free-and-fair election in six months, as Lissu said in a public speech. This isn’t the first time the Government has tried to eliminate the activist: in 2017 Tundu Lissu survived an assassination attempt and he was convicted several times during the presidency of Samia Suluhu Hassan and her predecessor John Magufuli.
The risk for Tanzanian democracy is high, also considering that, on Saturday 12th, CHADEMA has been disqualified from the upcoming elections as a consequence of the arrest.
No retreat on tariffs, Trump promised. Hours later, he blinked
In a dramatic U-turn, Donald Trump paused his sweeping tariff hikes just hours after vowing steadfastness, following intense economic and political backlash. His 90-day delay excluded China, with whom tensions escalated as tariffs reached 145%, sparking market chaos and global criticism. Though Trump framed the move as economic strategy, experts and business leaders viewed it as reckless and damaging to America’s credibility and financial stability. The tariff formula, criticized for absurdities, aimed to revive US manufacturing—a nostalgic but unrealistic goal, economists argued. Markets tumbled, tech giants suffered, and Republicans, including allies like Ted Cruz, began to dissent, challenging Trump’s authority. Public spats, such as Elon Musk’s clash with Trump adviser Peter Navarro, highlighted internal discord. Despite efforts to spin the retreat as strategic, even Trump admitted concern over market reactions. Analysts saw this as a significant blow to his image and questioned the sustainability of his “strongman” persona. The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with potential consumer price hikes and deepening trade war risks. Critics say Trump’s leadership style—aggressive yet erratic—has undermined US trust and influence. Though the pause offered temporary relief, the threat of renewed tariffs looms, and faith in the US as a stable economic partner continues to erode.
Syria and South Korea establish formal diplomatic relations
South Korea and Syria have formally established diplomatic relations, marking a significant milestone for Syria’s new transitional government under President Ahmad al-Sharaa and dealing a setback to North Korea, which previously had close ties with Syria under the Assad regime. The diplomatic ties were formalized in Damascus by South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and his Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shaibani. Cho expressed South Korea’s willingness to assist in Syria’s post-war recovery through business investment and humanitarian aid. Al-Shaibani, in turn, called for Seoul’s support in easing international sanctions on Syria.
This development concludes negotiations that began in February and follows major political shifts in both nations. In December, Syrian opposition forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad, ending over 50 years of family rule. Al-Sharaa’s transitional government, sworn in on March 30, is now working to stabilize a country still plagued by conflict. Meanwhile, South Korea is navigating its own political upheaval following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol, who declared martial law last year over claims of North Korean infiltration. An acting president currently leads South Korea, with a snap election set for June. With Syria, Seoul now has diplomatic relations with all 191 UN members, including recent ties with former North Korean ally Cuba.
European News
by Cristiana Murè
Hungary’s Satirical Protest Challenges Anti-LGBTQ+ Legislation
“They would like to express themselves, which is very harmful. Only I should be allowed to express myself, no one else.” This and other ironic quotes were the core of a very peculiar and quick-witted protest held in Budapest this weekend.
Thousands of Hungarians marched to both mock and protest against Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, carrying slogans like “Let’s all be the same”, while wearing all-gray outfits. The protest was organized by the satirical Two-tailed Dog Party as a direct response to a constitutional amendment passed by Orbán’s Fidesz party, which prohibits public LGBTQ+ events under the pretext of protecting children. The upcoming elections are surely to be taken into account when analyzing the moves of the current government, which, as argued by the opposition, might use such legislation as a tool to consolidate support among most conservative electors. Nevertheless, opinion surveys suggest challenges ahead for the ruling party.
Bomb Explodes Near Athens Train Company’s Offices
Last Friday night, April 11, allegedly 35 minutes after an anonymous phone warning to a newspaper, a bomb detonated in central Athens. The incident took place outside of Hellenic Train’s offices, the main Greek railway company, acquired by the Italian Ferrovie dello Stato in 2017 and now fully controlled by Trenitalia. No casualties were reported, but the explosion caused property damage.
Currently, the authorities have not named any suspects or motives. However, it is impossible to ignore the widespread dissatisfaction with railroad safety and the administration of transportation infrastructure, as this incident takes place during a time of ongoing public anger, close to the second anniversary of the tragedy of February 28, 2023, in which 57 people lost their lives when a freight train and a passenger train collided due to being on the same track.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
I have spent most of my life in India before recently moving to Milan, where I am pursuing an MSc in Finance at Bocconi. I am interested in politics, art and culture, cinema, and travelling. Through my writing, I aspire to document important voices and present opinions. In my free time, I try to keep up with my movies-to-watch list, sample as many restaurants as I can, and find cats to pet.
I am currently completing a MSc in Economics and Management of Innovation and Technology at Bocconi University. Through writing, I try to analyze and comprehend the world around me, while also reflecting my interest for behavioral economics, philosophy, and physics. A deep curiosity motivates me to always explore different fields and consider various and contrasting perspectives.
