In today’s issue of the Monday Briefing we dive into the Middle Eastern Crisis, as developments come from all fronts. In other news we see the Ukrainian Deal under threat and the Chinese response to Trump. Europe distances itself from the US, securing a deal with India and by not buying Musk’s Teslas.
Spotlight: The Middle East, ceasefires and tanks.
In the last two years, since October 7th, 2023, the states and the people of the Middle East have fallen back into the permanent instability that has characterized this part of the world in the last century. Israel’s actions in response to Hamas attack to its citizens has marked a new e historical era, one in which peace seems to be as far as ever. Let’s take a look at the most recent developments on four key fronts in the region.
First of all, there is the Gaza strip. The whole world has followed closely the ceasefire phases defined by the deal struck between Tel Aviv’s government and Hamas. The two parties have been exchanging prisoners and hostages for the last weeks and are now set to transition to this yet unclear phase two of the ceasefire, even though now Netanyahu is trying to alter the deal. Several issues have been underlined in the past week, such as the humiliating ceremonies held by Hamas and the non-respect of the deal by Isreal, which is allegedly not allowing for humanitarian assistance to reach the area in the forms that it had promised.
While the war is currently on halt in Gaza, it continues in the West Bank, as IDF tanks enter the region for the first time in years. The operation has been justified to protect Israeli citizens from a terrorist attack, such as the one that occurred on February 20th, when three busses in Tel Aviv were destroyed by Palestinian bombs Even though no one was harmed by the attack, the weapons used were traced back to Palestinian origin thanks to the words “Revenge against the Tulkarm camp”, referring to a previous Israeli attack in the West bank.
The Middle eastern conflict has also advanced on the front between Israel and Syria, where IDF troops have moved into the area previously held by UN peacekeepers, north of the Golan Heights, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War. Tel Aviv has declared that this move is to protect Israeli citizens from the newly installed Syrian government, led by Al Sharaa. Damascus, currently occupied by the complex process of national rebuilding after the ousting of dictator Bashar Al Assad, does not possess forces to intervene on this front at the moment. In a speech last month, the president of Syria had nonetheless pledged to protect Syrian territorial integrity, which might force him to ask for more help from his northern ally: Erdogan.
In these chaotic times, Ankara’s leader did not stand still. He has moved pieces on several tables in order to increase Turkish importance as a regional power, including in the relations between the western powers and Russia. Erdogan most recent success has been, on the other hand, domestic. The leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, has officially asked its allies in Kurdistan to disarm and to reach an agreement with Ankara. PKK militants have fought in the last 40 years for the independence of Kurdistan, just like their allies south of the Syrian border, the SDF. Although the party is recognized as terrorist by the EU and US, these new developments might lead to real negotiations in the region and, hopefully, to a lasting peace for the people of Kurdistan.
Around the World
Ukrainians fear losing US support as Trump-Zelenskyy clash shocks world
Ukrainians are increasingly concerned about the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing support for their country following a heated Oval Office exchange between Presidents Zelenskyy and Trump. The tense press conference, also attended by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, highlighted stark disagreements over ending the ongoing war. While Zelenskyy sought security guarantees, the Trump administration signaled a shift in U.S. foreign policy, aligning more closely with Russia.
Many Ukrainians, hardened by three years of war, fear the impact of losing American aid, particularly as Russian forces advance. Some hope European allies will increase support, given their already significant contributions. Despite the shock of the Oval Office confrontation, Ukrainians remain grateful for past U.S. assistance but worry about their country’s future without it. Zelenskyy, who insisted on concrete security commitments, later walked away from a proposed minerals deal. Many in Kyiv see him as a strong defender of Ukraine’s interests.
China pledges ‘countermeasures’ after Trump announces new 10% tariff
China has issued a warning to the U.S., vowing “countermeasures” after President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods in response to fentanyl smuggling. On Thursday, Trump revealed a 10 percent tariff increase on Chinese imports, in addition to a previously imposed duty, and confirmed that 25 percent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would take effect on March 4.
China’s Ministry of Commerce condemned the move, stating that U.S. accusations were an attempt to shift blame and avoid responsibility. Beijing urged Washington to engage in fair dialogue instead of imposing unilateral tariffs, which it claims violate WTO rules. The ministry warned that if the U.S. proceeds, China will take necessary actions to protect its interests.
The U.S. DEA identifies China as the primary supplier of chemicals used to produce fentanyl, while Beijing insists it has cooperated with Washington to combat the drug trade, implementing strict regulations and enforcement measures.
Israel cuts off humanitarian supplies to Gaza as it seeks to change ceasefire deal
Israel has halted humanitarian aid to Gaza, aiming to pressure Hamas into modifying the ceasefire terms to secure hostage releases without an Israeli troop withdrawal. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office announced the blockade after Hamas rejected a plan reportedly proposed by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, which sought to extend the first phase of the ceasefire while delaying Israeli withdrawal. Israel insists there will be no ceasefire without hostage releases and warned of further actions if Hamas refuses.
The move has drawn international criticism, with the UN urging Israel to resume aid shipments. Hamas condemned the blockade as a “war crime” and reaffirmed its commitment to the original agreement, which included Israeli troop withdrawal. Aid agencies warn of worsening humanitarian conditions, with shortages of food, water, and medical care. Meanwhile, Israeli political tensions continue, as Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition opposes any withdrawal, while many Israelis prioritize securing the hostages’ release over military objectives.
European News
by Cristiana Murè
Austria’s Attempt to Reduce Dependence on Russian Gas
As of August 2024, while other European countries had already reduced their imports, 82% of Austria’s gas supply still depended on Russia.
Following decades of commercial ties in the sector, dating back to 1968, the nation’s current goal is to diversify its energy sources by promoting policy proposals that would require domestic energy companies to gradually phase out Russian gas. Options for an early end to the country’s long-term gas contract with Moscow, expiring in 2040, are also being explored.
The OMV Group — an Austrian multinational oil, gas, and petrochemical firm — is at the core of these changes, overseeing a drilling ring just outside of Vienna. However, the primary energy source that they are searching for is not oil but hot water, of which the drills take over 1.7 gallons per day. With the potential to warm 20,000 households before pumping the water back underground, this geothermal energy might be a crucial component in reducing Austria’s dependence on natural gas.
EU-India Free Trade Agreement Negotiations
On Friday, February 28, the European Union and India agreed on establishing a free trade agreement by the end of 2025.
The need to mitigate the impact of the U.S. tariffs increase on both parties could have significantly contributed to this commitment to deadline on the long-pending deal. The strategic importance of it also lies on its magnitude: the EU is India’s biggest trading partner in goods, and two-way commerce has increased by around 90% over the past ten years, reaching $137.5 billion in the fiscal year 2023/24.
For the European Union this would represent not only participation to what could be one of the largest FTA on a global scale, but also to stronger relations with one of the most protected markets in the world. Among the industries that could be covered: batteries, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, clean hydrogen and defense.
Tesla’s Sales Plummet in Europe
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the former leader of the EVs industry is facing a sharp 45% decline in the EU market, despite a general 37% gain in sales of electric vehicles throughout Europe. These events were also reflected on Tesla’s stocks, which saw a decline on more than 9%, with the market value of the company going below $1 trillion for the first time since November 2024.
While the election of President Trump had a significant impact on the performance of the company in the financial markets (+15% on the day of Trump’s victory), Musk’s political endeavors are now listed among the possible causes for negative consumers reactions and declining sales, along with the consolidation of the market share of strong Asian competitors.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
I have spent most of my life in India before recently moving to Milan, where I am pursuing an MSc in Finance at Bocconi. I am interested in politics, art and culture, cinema, and travelling. Through my writing, I aspire to document important voices and present opinions. In my free time, I try to keep up with my movies-to-watch list, sample as many restaurants as I can, and find cats to pet.
I am currently completing a MSc in Economics and Management of Innovation and Technology at Bocconi University. Through writing, I try to analyze and comprehend the world around me, while also reflecting my interest for behavioral economics, philosophy, and physics. A deep curiosity motivates me to always explore different fields and consider various and contrasting perspectives.
