In today’s issue of the Monday Briefing we look at the consequences of Trump’s historical actions on Liberation Day. From Africa, the news of democratic discourse in Mozambique. In Europe Le Pen struggles after her conviction and the EU institutional heads meet with Central Asian counterparts.
Spotlight: Trade Wars descends upon the world.
Liberation Day has come and gone this week, and it left an unprecedented mark on world politics, bringing the world in a new age of Trade War. The American administration, in the person of the President Donald Trump, has issued tariffs on several key trade partners of the US. Trump has defined them has Reciprocal Tariffs, in the sense that they should balance for the non-tariff barriers that foreign countries apply to the US, according to his view. Let’s see who and how these tariffs will hurt.
First of all, how were these numbers reached? In the infamous spreadsheet that the President has used in his speech we can see various countries with different percentages associated to them, one for the Tariff Charged on the USA and one for the USA discounted Reciprocal Tariff, which the administration now aims at implementing. We will briefly discuss some interesting figures later on, after having highlighted how they were computed. Even though the process behind this economic result might seem extremely complex in theory, in practice it wasn’t much harder than a simple division. Indeed, the Tariff Charged on the USA is just the US trade deficit divided by the US imports from the particular country. To obtain the USA discounted Reciprocal Tariff just divide the obtained number by 2, or leave it as it is in case of the 10% lower threshold.
Among the most hit by the White House move are definitely Asian manufacturing economies, such as Vietnam (46% tariff), Cambodia (49%) and Bangladesh (37%). These developing countries are home of many industrial plants that exports to the US and the rest of the world, but are rarely able to afford American goods, thus leading to this massive trade deficits. American companies, such as Nike and Apple, have made significant investments in these Asian countries, by offshoring their productions there.
Another major target of Trump Trade War is China, of course. On top of the 20% already exiting tariff that the President had imposed during his first week in office, the administration has now put a 34% due to this Reciprocal Tariffs scheme, thus leading to a total of 54%. This massive increase in the cost of Chinese goods in the American market is one of the key campaign promises that the Republican Leader had made. Beijing has not wasted time, already setting retaliatory tariffs on the US.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the EU has been targeted by a 20% tariff, which will have a drastic impact on the European economy, as the Single Market has exported more than 500 billion Euros to the US in 2024 (20,6% of the total exports). The EU response has not yet arrived, but the Commission will likely answer to this American move in the coming days. Other two countries are currently being discussed, as one appears to have been exempted from tariffs and the other one was certainly expecting to be so. Russia’s name does not appear in the tariffs list, while Israel’s is written clearly, associated to a 17% tariff.
In the early days of this Trade War begun by Donald Trump we cannot be sure of anything. Decisions and countermeasures are moving faster than we can observe them, as the entire world’s economy is reshaping around the new American posturing. Whether these tariffs will prove to be detrimental for the US or they will bring a new American Golden Age, as promised by the President, is currently uncertain. Only time will tell us how history will remember this Liberation Day, as whether it will remember it is certainly beyond question.
Around the World
by Riccardo De Ambroggi
The democratic turning point in Mozambique
After 5 months of unrest where at least 250 lost their lives, on the 2nd of April Mozambique’s Parliament approved unanimously a landmark law to drive the country towards a new political era. The protest started last October, shortly after the elections that saw the party FRELIMO, ruling the country since 1975, prevailing again over the main opposition party PODEMOS. The opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane accused irregularities during the electoral process, also considering that over 200 polling stations denied the supervision of journalists and observers. His declaration led to a mass protest in all major Mozambican cities that where heavily repressed by police, leading to the large number of deaths.
This law is the reply of the government to the protest and the fact that also PODEMOS and other minority parties has voted in favor of the resolution is an important sign for the stability of Mozambique in the future. The law sets three main objectives for constitutional reform: restructuring the state, depoliticizing institutions, and decentralizing political, economic, and financial power. Only time will tell us if it is the right path to follow or just an attempt of the government to restore peace and divert attention over the elections procedures but surely it is a fundamental step to an accountable democratic regime.
European News
by Cristiana Murè
Le Pen’s Conviction Consequences for France
While France’s far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) called for a “peaceful popular mobilization” under the motto “Save Democracy”, left-wing and centrist parties asked for separate demonstrations in support of the rule of law and against death threats to judges. The topic that generated such divisions is the recent conviction of Marine Le Pen, leader of RN, for embezzling €4.1 million in EU funds, originally meant for parliamentary assistants but instead used to pay party employees in France.
The aspect of the sentence generating the most discussion was the immediate five-year ban from holding public office, which virtually disqualifies Le Pen from the 2027 presidential election. Although her appeal to the verdict, the ban remains in place during the appeals process. The intention manifested by French legal authorities is that of accelerating the appeal and reach a decision by the summer of 2026.
This event has both immediate and long-term ramifications for France. With RN facing internal succession planning challenges and finding a potential successors in Jordan Bardella, it is yet to be seen if the younger candidate will represent a potential increase in support or diminish RN’s chances to the Elysée.
First EU-Central Asia Summit in Uzbekistan
Last Friday, April 4, the first EU-Central Asia summit took place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Hosted by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the event included leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and, representing the EU, European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Establishing and reaching a consensus on the areas where the parties may strengthen their collaboration going forward was the primary goal of the summit.
The main macro-areas covered were: addressing common security challenges, ranging from cybersecurity to illegal drug and human trafficking; strengthening economic ties based on full implementation of current and future bilateral enhanced partnership and cooperation agreements (EPCAs); working together on the efficient and climate-friendly use of water resources, raw materials, and sustainable transportation; promoting and protecting the rule of law, human rights, and fundamental freedoms, with Human Rights Watch specifically highlighting this point; and, finally, deeper cooperation in research and education through opportunities under the Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe programs.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
I am currently completing a MSc in Economics and Management of Innovation and Technology at Bocconi University. Through writing, I try to analyze and comprehend the world around me, while also reflecting my interest for behavioral economics, philosophy, and physics. A deep curiosity motivates me to always explore different fields and consider various and contrasting perspectives.
