by Elisa Latora, Vatsal Aggarwal and Pietro Ferrari
The US election has dominated the news-biosphere over the past week. It is for this reason that we thought it necessary to sum up the main takeaways from this election in a Special Edition focused entirely on the US presidential election. A result that was impossible to call until the very end of the campaign, in the end proved to be a clear win for Donald Trump who not only got 312 electoral votes against Kamala Harris’ 226 (while some states need to be called), but also appears to have won the popular vote.
Trump is the second president in the history of the US to be re-elected for a non-consecutive term, and the first since 1897. How did this astounding comeback happen: from convicted felon back to the White House? We will explain how losing minorities’ support played a crucial role in the downfall of the Democratic Party. We will lead you through how the state of inflation and the economy over the past 4 years defined an unconditional support for Republicans. Finally, what does a second Trump presidency mean for us here in Europe?
Losing the minorities
Minorities should not be thought of as having a minor impact on electoral outcomes in the US. In fact, the Black, Hispanic and Asian minorities are holding an increasingly important place in the electorate. On average, the US eligible voter population is estimated to have grown at a rate of 3% between 2020 and 2024. However, if we look at the same rate for the Black, Hispanic and Asian minorities they have been growing at much faster rates; respectively to 7%, 12% and 15%.
At the same time, the recent voting trends from minorities pose a paradox to any viewer. Keeping up with the trends seen over the past years, the minorities have started voting red with greater enthusiasm and numbers than before.
In 2016, Trump won the support of 12% of the black community in the US, which was the best Republican result since George W. Bush in 2000. In 2024, Trump has beaten his own record and gained an ever-larger piece of the Latino community vote. The fact that a nominee whose first election-winning campaign was centered around building a wall to keep immigrants out is now benefiting from the slow, but sure swing in voting preferences of minorities in itself merits a closer look at the possible causes and the magnitude of this swing.
Despite his condemnation of certain immigrants as “drug dealers,” “murderers,” and “rapists” and promise to conduct the largest deportation effort in US history soon after he takes office, Trump gained 46% of the Latino community’s vote, setting another record high for a Republican nominee. Actually, if we look only at Latino men, an even larger 55% voted for Trump at these elections.
Analysts believe that a combination of economic messaging and admiration for Trump’s personality garnered this increase. An important sociological aspect to consider here is that the offending remarks seem to be ignored by the Latino community because they believe that Trump is not talking about them. Being eligible voters in the US, they differentiate themselves from those who do not have a voice in this election despite sharing similarities of lineage with them.
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
None of these statistics should be seen in isolation, though. One of the general sentiments shared by most Republican supporters is that they were better off economically during Trump’s first term than during Biden’s presidency. In 2022, the post-pandemic economic fallout pushed inflation to sky-high levels, with a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, and the steep gap between salary increase rates and inflation scarred the American population. Indeed, Trump’s shiny promises of tax cuts, protectionists-era import tariffs and a prosperous economy ‘at the end of the rainbow’ proved defining for his re-election chances. Although even more substantial proof of this are the polls: Donald Trump was the candidate that Americans reportedly trusted more with the economy and the candidate which they expected would leave them better off financially. And, like the phrase coined by James Carville goes: “it’s the economy, stupid!”.
What does another Trump presidency mean for the rest of the world?
The re-election of Donald Trump is certainly a defining moment in the history of international relations. The third decade of this century, which begun with him in power, has featured a series of unprecedented turning points in many issues around the world, and things are certainly not calming down after November 5th. It can be argued that Trump’s first term was already decisive in influencing the three major fronts of tensions that we will now dive into. Now, the world must prepare for another 4 years of political instability.
First things first: Ukraine. When Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, on February 24th 2022, Trump had been out of power for more than a year. His footprint on the issue, however, is not hard to find: the disastrous Afghanistan retreat and the widespread disengagement narrative of The Donald were certainly part of the Kremlin decision making process, maybe even decisively swaying the Russians into war.
After two and a half years of constant fighting in Ukraine, the war is slowly turning in Putin’s favour, as Zelensky’s troop struggles to fill the gaps in the lines. Trump has widely criticized US support for Ukraine, stating that it is a waste of resources. Some days into the new Republican era and the effects are already showing. Ukraine leadership is pleading again for support to Washington, while Putin declared that negotiations with Trump are possible. As for how long this conflict will last with a red White House is still uncertain, but the priority of the new administration will certainly be far from Eastern Europe. Indeed, Europe as a whole will be left on its own: the EU and NATO will have to decisively rethink their very foundation if they want to survive the next 4 years.
In the Middle East: While the Russian leadership is celebrating Trump’s victory, some hundreds kilometres south a close ally of Putin is doing exactly the opposite. The Iranian regime has already been a clear target of Trump’s attacks in the past (General Soleimani killing and the withdrawal from the Iranian Nuclear Deal) and this will certainly continue to be in the future, especially in the new wider context of a warring Middle East. The president-elect has stated multiple times his relentless support for Israel and for the action of Netanyahu’s government, which in turn means an increase in violence on the many open fronts. Indeed, the biggest loser of this elections may not be Kamala Harris, nor any another American citizen, but the tens of thousands Palestinians and Lebanese that will die under unrestricted Israeli attacks.
Last but certainly not least on Trump’s agenda is China. China has been practically declared public enemy number 1 by Donald Trump, who has promised to engage in an unprecedented trade war against Beijing. The economic slowdown that is currently raging in China could be even exacerbated by the tariffs suggested. This would mean a lot for internal economic development of both nations, but on the international relations stage it will just increase tensions in the Pacific strategic area. The Chinese leadership has been, as always, very cautious: congratulating the tycoon for his victory. One thing is clear: the two biggest economies of the world have never been geopolitically so far apart.
Having lived both in Italy and the UK, I enjoy exploring how multiculturalism affects our personal identities. I use language, writing and journalism as tools to decipher the world around me. And, I will of course never turn down a lively convo about current news. With a degree in Economic and Social sciences, I’m now pursuing a master’s in Politics and Policy Analysis.
I have spent most of my life in India before recently moving to Milan, where I am pursuing an MSc in Finance at Bocconi. I am interested in politics, art and culture, cinema, and travelling. Through my writing, I aspire to document important voices and present opinions. In my free time, I try to keep up with my movies-to-watch list, sample as many restaurants as I can, and find cats to pet.
Every week, your TiL Monday Briefing 🗞: you better read it with a cup of coffee! ☕️
Head of the Monday Briefing column: Pietro Ferrari. Current writing staff: Vatsal Aggarwal, Cristiana Murè. Cartoons by Polina Mednikova. The Monday Briefing column was established in its current form in 2021 by Bojan Zeric.
